J David Neelin

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The quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM1) is implemented and tested. The formulation, described by Neelin and Zeng, uses a Galerkin framework in the vertical, but with basis functions tailored to quasi-equilibrium deep convective physics via analytical solutions. QTCM1 retains a single vertical structure of temperature and humidity. For a(More)
The source of irregularity in El Niño, the large interannual climate variation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, has remained elusive. Results from an El Niño model exhibit transition to chaos through a series of frequency-locked steps created by nonlinear resonance with the Earth's annual cycle. The overlapping of these resonances leads to the(More)
The review paper by Emanuel et al. (1994; hereafter ENB) provides a stimulating and at times provocative overview of the dynamics of convecting systems and their interaction with larger-scale circulations. As such it prompted us to organize a semester-long seminar devoted to the study of these interactions, and to ENB’s ideas in particular. The following(More)
Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is(More)
Evaluation of competing El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) theories requires one to identify separate spectral peaks in equatorial wind and sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. To sharpen this identification, we examine the seasonal-to-interannual variability of these fields by the data-adaptive method of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis(More)
The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the West African Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere–land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea-surface temperature variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal(More)
Convective quasi-equilibrium (QE) has for several decades stood as a key postulate for parametrization of the impacts of moist convection at small scales upon the large-scale flow. Departures from QE have motivated stochastic convective parametrization, which in its early stages may be viewed as a sensitivity study. Introducing plausible stochastic terms to(More)
Climate models exhibit high sensitivity in some respects, such as for differences in predicted precipitation changes under global warming. Despite successful large-scale simulations, regional climatology features prove difficult to constrain toward observations, with challenges including high-dimensionality, computationally expensive simulations, and(More)