J. Bradford De Long

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We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders’ beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational arbitrageurs from aggressively betting against them. As a(More)
We investigate the relationship between violence and economic risk preferences in Afghanistan combining: (i) a two-part experimental procedure identifying risk preferences, violations of Expected Utility, and specific preferences for certainty; (ii) controlled recollection of fear based on established methods from psychology; and (iii) administrative(More)
The introduction of centrifugal pumps as artificial heart devices has spawned a number of interesting controls problems including magnetic levitation and motoring of a thin, gyroscopic impeller subject to significant but poorly characterized fluid couplings; parameter estimation based observation of magnetic circuits to determine impeller position; and(More)
I want to praise "technology" as the important factor in the relative growth performance of the nation-states’ economies. I want to argue that the conventional wisdom substantially understates the role of differences in total factor productivity in explaining differentials across nation-state economies in GDP per capita. "Technology" in this sense is more(More)
We investigate the relationship between violent trauma and economic risk preferences in Afghanistan combining: (i) a two-part experimental procedure identifying risk pref­ erences, violations of Expected Utility (EU), and specific preferences for certainty; (ii) controlled recollection of fear based on established methods from psychology; and (iii)(More)
Abstract Elections in developing countries commonly fail to deliver accountability because of manipulation, often involving collusion between corrupt election officials and political candidates. We report the results of an experimental evaluation of Photo Quick Count—a monitoring technology designed to detect the illegal sale of votes by corrupt election(More)
their help in the management of the exit poll, and the many Kenyan enumerators from Strategic Research for their excellent assistance in the implementation of the poll. All errors remain with the author. 2 Despite voters' attempts to use elections as mechanisms of accountability, weak institutional environments in emerging democracies do not always succeed(More)