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The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of(More)
Large particles containing nitric acid (HNO3) were observed in the 1999/2000 Arctic winter stratosphere. These in situ observations were made over a large altitude range (16 to 21 kilometers) and horizontal extent (1800 kilometers) on several airborne sampling flights during a period of several weeks. With diameters of 10 to 20 micrometers, these(More)
Predictions of temperature rise over the twenty-first century are necessarily uncertain, both because the sensitivity of the climate system to changing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, as well as the rate of ocean heat uptake, is poorly quantified and because future influences on climate-of anthropogenic as well as natural origin-are difficult to(More)
A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming. These estimates are then projected forward in time using a linear, compact relationship(More)
We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level(More)
climateprediction.net is a large public resource distributed scientific computing project. Members of the public download and run a full-scale climate model, donate their computing time to a large perturbed physics ensemble experiment to forecast the climate in the 21st century and submit their results back to the project. The amount of data generated is(More)
Simulations of Arctic denitrification using a 3-D chemistry-microphysics transport model are compared with observations for the winters 1994/95, 1996/97 and 1999/2000. The model of Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation (DLAPSE) couples the full chemical scheme of the 3-D chemical transport model, SLIMCAT, with a nitric acid trihydrate (NAT)(More)
The range of possibilities for future climate evolution1–3 needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multidecadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty4–9. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on(More)
Simulations of Arctic denitrification using a 3-D chemistry-microphysics transport model are compared with observations for the winters 1994/1995, 1996/1997 and 1999/2000. The model of Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation (DLAPSE) couples the full chemical scheme of the 3-D chemical transport model, 5 SLIMCAT, with a nitric acid trihydrate(More)