Jérôme Creel

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We use panel data methodology to capture cross-section and time-series dimensions of unemployment growth in OECD countries and their links with fiscal and monetary policies. We did test for the robustness of every explanatory variables according to Levine and Renelt (1992) methodology. The entire data set covers 6 areas: general economic structure;(More)
We make the case for investigating the gap between the potential and the actual level of production, and review contributions that point to the reduced power of standard policy instruments in presence of a prolonged gap. We also highlight di¢ culties in measuring where an economy stands relative to its potential. We review links between human capital(More)
This paper aims to quantify the link between financialisation and financial instability, controlling for the financial and macroeconomic environment. Our main identification assumption is to represent these two concepts as a system of simultaneous joint data generating processes whose error terms are correlated. Based on panel data for EU countries from(More)
This paper investigates the effect of shocks to the policy rate, to the central bank's inflation and output projections and to private output forecasts on the term structure of private inflation expectations, so as to uncover private agents' interpretation of signals about policy and the macroeconomic outlook. We aim to understand how they process(More)
The European consolidation process has raised a few questions. The most frequent one has been how large are the costs of consolidation and has the Eurozone fiscal stance improved or achieved debt sustainability? Second, do these costs and sustainability depend on the composition (tax vs. spending) of the consolidation process? Third, do risk premia matter?(More)
This paper aims at investigating first the (possibly time-varying) empirical relationship between the level and conditional variances of price and financial stability, and second, the effects of macro and policy variables on this relationship in the United States and the Eurozone. Three empirical methods are used to examine the relevance of A.J. Schwartz's(More)
  • Catherine Bruneau, Anne-Laure Delatte, Julien Fouquau, Richard Portes, Jean-S Messonier, Jérôme Creel +5 others
  • 2012
We assess the nature of the European sovereign crisis in the light of a model borrowed from the second generation of currency crises. We bring the theory to the data to empirically test the presence of self-fulfilling dynamics and to identify what may have driven the market sentiment during this crisis. To do so we estimate the probability of default of(More)
The compliance technique has been used to monitor crack length during fracture and fatigue testing of materials. Difficulties arise when this technique is applied to anisotropic biological materials such as bone. In this tutorial, two different methods of analyzing compliance calibration data are described: the standard ASTM method and a new approach(More)
This paper focuses on five central banks, which communicate their forecasts in real-time and for which information asymmetry should therefore be minimized, to assess whether the central bank has a better forecasting performance than private agents. Results challenge the findings of the seminal paper by Romer and Romer (2000), in which they evidence the(More)
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