The authors describe a behavioral theory of the dynamics of insider-threat risks. Drawing on data related to information technology security violations and on a case study created to explain the dynamics observed in that data, the authors constructed a system dynamics model of a theory of the development of insider-threat risks and conducted numerical… (More)
Recently national, state, and local governments from many countries have been attempting to reform their administrative structure, processes, and regulatory frameworks. E-government can be seen as a powerful approach for government administrative reform. The dynamics and evolution of e-government is a complex process resulting from strategic behavior,… (More)
In this paper, we present insights generated by modeling the emergence of insider threat vulnerabilities in organizations. In our model, we integrate concepts from social judgment theory, signal detection theory, and the cognitive psychology of memory and belief formation. With this model, we investigate the emergence of vulnerabilities (especially that are… (More)
The authors present experimental and simulation results of an outcome-based learning model as it applies to the identification of emerging threats. This model integrates judgment, decision making, and learning theories to provide an integrated framework for the behavioral study of emerging threats.
1 Mr. Akcam's contributions to this paper were developed during a summer internship at Argonne National Laboratory in 2007. Abstract This paper presents a generic model for information security implementation in organizations. The model presented here is part of an ongoing research stream related to critical infrastructure protection and insider threat and… (More)
Agent-based modeling is an approach used to describe systems composed of autonomous, independent, interactive, and potentially adaptive agents. Although agent-based models (ABMs) often include endogenous relationships that exist in agent-level interactions, such relationships are seldom salient when the structural elements of the models are analyzed and… (More)
The present paper summarizes the integration of two models, an energy security model and a national stability (conflict) model. The Energy Security Model uses system dynamics to represent national interactions in global markets for oil and natural gas. The Conflict Model employs multiscale agent-based modeling to represent international, national and… (More)
In this paper we apply 3D printing and genetic algorithm-generated anticipatory system dynamics models to a homeland security challenge, namely understanding the interface between transnational organized criminal networks and local gangs. We apply 3D printing to visualize the complex criminal networks involved. This allows better communication of the… (More)