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We use simple learning models to track the behavior observed in experiments concerning three extensive form games with similar perfect equilibria. In only two of the games does observed behavior approach the perfect equilibrium as players gain experience. We examine a family of learning models which possess some of the robust properties of learning noted in(More)
When people have access to information sources such as newspaper weather forecasts, drug-package inserts, and mutual-fund brochures, all of which provide convenient descriptions of risky prospects, they can make decisions from description. When people must decide whether to back up their computer's hard drive, cross a busy street, or go out on a date,(More)
According to a common conception in behavioral decision research, two cognitive processes-overestimation and overweighting-operate to increase the impact of rare events on people's choices. Supportive findings stem primarily from investigations in which people learn about options via descriptions thereof. Recently, a number of researchers have begun to(More)
Analysis of binary choice behavior in iterated tasks with immediate feedback reveals robust deviations from maximization that can be described as indications of 3 effects: (a) a payoff variability effect, in which high payoff variability seems to move choice behavior toward random choice; (b) underweighting of rare events, in which alternatives that yield(More)
A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory(More)
We examine decision-making under risk and uncertainty in a laboratory experiment. The heart of our design examines how one's propensity to use Bayes' rule is affected by whether this rule is aligned with reinforcement or clashes with it. In some cases, we create environments where Bayesian updating after a successful outcome should lead a decision-maker to(More)
Over-reliance on automated navigation systems may cause users to be " mindless " of the environment and not develop the spatial knowledge that maybe required when automation fails. This research focused on the potential degradation in spatial knowledge acquisition due to the reliance on automatic wayfinding systems. In addition, the impact of " keeping the(More)
The 'certainty effect' is a notable violation of expected utility theory by decision makers. It shows that people's tendency to select the safer of two prospects increases when this prospect provides a good outcome with certainty (for example, people prefer a monetary gain of 3 with certainty over 4 with a probability of 0.8, but do not prefer 3 with a(More)
Examination of the effect of information concerning foregone pay-offs on choice behavior reveals a complex pattern. Depending on the environment , this information can facilitate or impair maximization. Our study of nine experimental tasks suggests that the complex pattern can be summarized with the assumption that initially people tend to be highly(More)