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When people have access to information sources such as newspaper weather forecasts, drug-package inserts, and mutual-fund brochures, all of which provide convenient descriptions of risky prospects, they can make decisions from description. When people must decide whether to back up their computer's hard drive, cross a busy street, or go out on a date,(More)
The present paper explores situations in which the information available to decision makers is limited to feedback concerning the outcomes of their previous decisions. The results reveal that experience in these situations can lead to deviations from max-imization in the opposite direction of the deviations observed when the decisions are made based on a(More)
Analysis of binary choice behavior in iterated tasks with immediate feedback reveals robust deviations from maximization that can be described as indications of 3 effects: (a) a payoff variability effect, in which high payoff variability seems to move choice behavior toward random choice; (b) underweighting of rare events, in which alternatives that yield(More)
According to a common conception in behavioral decision research, two cognitive processes-overestimation and overweighting-operate to increase the impact of rare events on people's choices. Supportive findings stem primarily from investigations in which people learn about options via descriptions thereof. Recently, a number of researchers have begun to(More)
  • I Erev
  • 1998
Previous experimental examinations of binary categorization decisions have documented robust behavioral regularities that cannot be predicted by signal detection theory (D.M. Green & J.A. Swets, 1966/1988). The present article reviews the known regularities and demonstrates that they can be accounted for by a minimal modification of signal detection theory:(More)
A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory(More)
This paper concerns the evaluation and combination of subjective probability estimates for categorical events. We argue that the appropriate criterion for evaluating individual and combined estimates depends on the type of uncertainty the decision maker seeks to represent, which in turn depends on his or her model of the event space. Decision makers require(More)
This paper examines the effect on learning in simple decision tasks of the addition of a constant to all payoffs. Experiment 1 reveals that this effect, initially observed in a probability learning task, is not limited to single person decision making under uncertainty. Experiment 2 shows that the effect is not linear. Two additional experiments show that(More)
One of the main difficulties in the development of descriptive models of learning in repeated choice tasks involves the abstraction of the effect of losses. The present paper explains this difficulty, summarizes its common solutions, and presents an experiment that was designed to compare the descriptive power of the specific quantifications of these(More)