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In order to study the complex global dynamics of a series of blackouts in power transmission systems a dynamical model of such a system has been developed. This model includes a simple representation of the dynamical evolution by incorporating the growth of power demand, the engineering response to system failures, and the upgrade of generator capacity. Two… (More)

Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure and blackouts of these systems have major direct and indirect consequences on the economy and national security. Analysis of North American Electrical Reliability Council blackout data suggests the existence of blackout size distributions with power tails. This is an indication that blackout… (More)

We give an overview of a complex systems approach to large blackouts of electric power transmission systems caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics and dynamics of series of blackouts with approximate global models. Blackout data from several countries suggest that the frequency of… (More)

We define a model for the evolution of a long series of electric power transmission system blackouts. The model describes opposing forces which have been conjectured to cause self-organized criticality in power system blackouts. There is a slow time scale representing the opposing forces of load growth and growth in system capacity and a fast time scale… (More)

We introduce branching process models in discrete and continuous time for the exponentially increasing phase of cascading blackouts. Cumulative line trips from real blackout data have portions consistent with these branching process models. Some initial calculations identifying parameters and using a branching process model to estimate blackout… (More)

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- Ian Dobson
- 2012

—Large blackouts typically involve the cascading out-age of transmission lines. We estimate from observed utility data how much transmission line outages propagate, and obtain parameters of a probabilistic branching process model of the cascading. The branching process model is then used to predict the distribution of total number of outages for a given… (More)

- Jie Chen, James S. Thorp, Ian Dobson
- 2003

A hidden failure embedded DC model of power transmission systems has been developed to study the power law distributions observed in North American blackout data. We investigate the impacts of several model parameters on the global dynamics and evaluate possible mitigation measures. The main parameters include system loading level, hidden failure… (More)

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power transmission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of the quasibino-mial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating… (More)

— We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality. The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and R/S analysis of the time series shows moderate long time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time… (More)