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- B A Carreras, V E Lynch, I Dobson, D E Newman
- Chaos
- 2004

In order to study the complex global dynamics of a series of blackouts in power transmission systems a dynamical model of such a system has been developed. This model includes a simple representation of the dynamical evolution by incorporating the growth of power demand, the engineering response to system failures, and the upgrade of generator capacity. Two… (More)

- Ian Dobson, Benjamin A Carreras, Vickie E Lynch, David E Newman
- Chaos
- 2007

We give an overview of a complex systems approach to large blackouts of electric power transmission systems caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics and dynamics of series of blackouts with approximate global models. Blackout data from several countries suggest that the frequency of… (More)

- Benjamin A. Carreras, Vickie E. Lynch, David E. Newman, Ian Dobson
- HICSS
- 2003

Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure and blackouts of these systems have major direct and indirect consequences on the economy and national security. Analysis of North American Electrical Reliability Council blackout data suggests the existence of blackout size distributions with power tails. This is an indication that blackout… (More)

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power transmission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of the quasibino-mial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating… (More)

- Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman, Ian Dobson, A. B. Poole
- IEEE Trans. on Circuits and Systems
- 2004

— We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality. The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and R/S analysis of the time series shows moderate long time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time… (More)

- Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, Vickie E. Lynch, David E. Newman
- HICSS
- 2001

We define a model for the evolution of a long series of electric power transmission system blackouts. The model describes opposing forces which have been conjectured to cause self-organized criticality in power system blackouts. There is a slow time scale representing the opposing forces of load growth and growth in system capacity and a fast time scale… (More)

- Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman
- HICSS
- 2005

We introduce branching process models in discrete and continuous time for the exponentially increasing phase of cascading blackouts. Cumulative line trips from real blackout data have portions consistent with these branching process models. Some initial calculations identifying parameters and using a branching process model to estimate blackout… (More)

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- Jie Chen, James S. Thorp, Ian Dobson
- 2003

A hidden failure embedded DC model of power transmission systems has been developed to study the power law distributions observed in North American blackout data. We investigate the impacts of several model parameters on the global dynamics and evaluate possible mitigation measures. The main parameters include system loading level, hidden failure… (More)

We verify and examine criticality in a 1000 bus network with an AC blackout model that represents many of the interactions that occur in cascading failure. At the critical loading there is a sharp rise in the mean blackout size and a power law probability distribution of blackout size that indicates a significant risk of large blackouts.