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- Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman, Ian Dobson, A. B. Poole
- IEEE Trans. on Circuits and Systems
- 2004

We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of selforganized criticality. The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and R/S analysis of the time series shows moderate long time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time… (More)

- Ian Dobson, Benjamin A Carreras, Vickie E Lynch, David E Newman
- Chaos
- 2007

We give an overview of a complex systems approach to large blackouts of electric power transmission systems caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics and dynamics of series of blackouts with approximate global models. Blackout data from several countries suggest that the frequency of… (More)

- Jie Chen, James S. Thorp, Ian Dobson
- 2003

A hidden failure embedded DC model of power transmission systems has been developed to study the power law distributions observed in North American blackout data. We investigate the impacts of several model parameters on the global dynamics and evaluate possible mitigation measures. The main parameters include system loading level, hidden failure… (More)

- B A Carreras, V E Lynch, I Dobson, D E Newman
- Chaos
- 2004

In order to study the complex global dynamics of a series of blackouts in power transmission systems a dynamical model of such a system has been developed. This model includes a simple representation of the dynamical evolution by incorporating the growth of power demand, the engineering response to system failures, and the upgrade of generator capacity. Two… (More)

- Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, Vickie E. Lynch, David E. Newman
- HICSS
- 2001

We define a model for the evolution of a long series of electric power transmission system blackouts. The model describes opposing forces which have been conjectured to cause self-organized criticality in power system blackouts. There is a slow time scale representing the opposing forces of load growth and growth in system capacity and a fast time scale… (More)

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power transmission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of the quasibinomial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating… (More)

- Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman
- HICSS
- 2005

We introduce branching process models in discrete and continuous time for the exponentially increasing phase of cascading blackouts. Cumulative line trips from real blackout data have portions consistent with these branching process models. Some initial calculations identifying parameters and using a branching process model to estimate blackout… (More)

- Ian Dobson
- 1999

A simple approach for the analysis of linear systems con-<lb>a, = 0 and a,., = T. X,,, k(t), Y,, k(t), and u(t) are the state, taining periodically operated switches is described. It is based on com-<lb>output, and input signal vectors, respectively. A f, B,, C,, and D,<lb>puting the system’s impulse response. Then, this impulse response series are constant… (More)

We verify and examine criticality in a 1000 bus network with an AC blackout model that represents many of the interactions that occur in cascading failure. At the critical loading there is a sharp rise in the mean b l a c k out size and a power law probability distr ibution of blackout size that indicates a s i g n i f i cant risk of large blackouts.

We give a comprehensive account of a complex systems approach to large blackouts caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics, dynamics and risk of series of blackouts with approximate global models. North American blackout data suggests that the frequency of large blackouts is governed by a… (More)