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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source
Investigation of the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease.
Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States.
- T. Germann, K. Kadau, I. Longini, C. Macken
- BiologyProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences…
- 11 April 2006
A large-scale stochastic simulation model is introduced and used to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population and suggests that the rapid production and distribution of vaccines could significantly slow disease spread and limit the number ill to <10% of the population, particularly if children are preferentially vaccinated.
Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.
Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available and is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population.
The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
A simulation model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009 and found that vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.
FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model
A new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population is developed, which has realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza.
Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China
This preprint is withdrawn for the time being because the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in mainland China has reached 18 times of the number in the manuscript.
Critical Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in the Environment of Bangladesh
The results of environmental sampling and analysis of the environmental and clinical data have revealed significant correlations of water temperature, water depth, rainfall, conductivity, and copepod counts with the occurrence of cholera toxin-producing bacteria (presumably V. cholerae).
Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine in preventing Ebola virus disease: final results from the Guinea ring vaccination, open-label, cluster-randomised trial (Ebola Ça Suffit!)