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The Impact of Different WRF Model Physical Parameterizations and Their Interactions on Warm Season MCS Rainfall
In recent years, a mixed-physics ensemble approach has been investigated as a method to better predict mesoscale convective system (MCS) rainfall. For both mixed-physics ensemble design andExpand
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Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method
The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF) data assimilation approach are used to examine the potential impact of observations from the futureExpand
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The Impact of Different Physical Parameterizations and Their Interactions on Cold Season QPF in the American River Basin
Abstract The most significant precipitation events in California occur during the winter and are often related to synoptic-scale storms from the Pacific Ocean. Because of the terrain characteristicsExpand
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Evaluation and Comparison of Microphysical Algorithms in ARW-WRF Model Simulations of Atmospheric River Events Affecting the California Coast
Abstract Numerical prediction of precipitation associated with five cool-season atmospheric river events in northern California was analyzed and compared to observations. The model simulations wereExpand
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The 4 June 1999 Derecho event: A particularly difficult challenge for numerical weather prediction
Warm season convective system rainfall forecasts remain a particularly difficult forecast challenge. For these events, it is possible that ensemble forecasts would provide helpful informationExpand
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MCS Rainfall Forecast Accuracy as a Function of Large-Scale Forcing
The large-scale forcing associated with 20 mesoscale convective system (MCS) events has been evaluated to determine how the magnitude of that forcing influences the rainfall forecasts made with aExpand
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Some contrasts between good and bad forecasts of warm season MCS rainfall
Abstract Large variations in the accuracy of warm season MCS rainfall predictions are investigated by examining several well-forecasted and poorly forecasted cases from a sample of 20 eventsExpand
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Influence of initial conditions on the WRF-ARW Model QPF response to physical parameterization changes
To assist in optimizing a mixed-physics ensemble for warm season mesoscale convective system rainfall forecasting, the impact of various physical schemes as well as their interactions on rainfallExpand
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Diagnosis and Optimization of Ensemble Forecasts
Abstract In the current study, a technique that offers a way to evaluate ensemble forecast uncertainties produced either by initial conditions or different model versions, or both, is presented. TheExpand
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An Adaptive Approach for the Calculation of Ensemble Grid-Point Probabilities
TLDR
Ensemble probabilities are computed based on the number of members that exceed a threshold at a given point divided by the total number ofMembers. Expand
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