Hugh Willoughby

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In intense tropical cyclones, sea level pressures at the center are 50–100 hPa lower than outside the vortex, but only 10–30 hPa of the total pressure fall occurs inside the eye between the eyewall and the center. Warming by dry subsidence accounts for this fraction of the total hydrostatic pressure fall. Convection in the eyewall causes the warming by(More)
a Florida International University, Department of Earth Sciences and Southeast Environmental Research Center, Miami, FL 33199, United States b Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Division of Marine Geology and Geophysics, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, United States c Florida International University,(More)
(Vr, every 5 m s-1); (c) model-output vertical velocity (w, every 0.5 m s-1); and (d) vertical relative vorticity (z, every 0.5 x 10-3 s-1). Solid (dashed) lines are for positive (negative) values. Figure 16. As in Fig. 9 but for the streamlines (solid) and isotachs (dashed, every 10 m s-1) at (a) 200 hPa; (b) 400 hPa; (c) 850 hPa; and (d) 950 hPa. The(More)
Although numerical models are essential to hurricane forecasting, many other applications require only statistical depiction of the wind distribution. In Holland’s 1980 parametric profile, radius of maximum wind, maximum wind, and a measure of the profile width describe the radial variation of the axisymmetric wind. Variants of the Holland profile are used(More)
For applications such as windstorm underwriting or storm-surge forecasting, hurricane wind profiles are often approximated by continuous functions that are zero at the vortex center, increase to a maximum in the eyewall, and then decrease asymptotically to zero far from the center. Comparisons between the most commonly used functions and aircraft(More)
The interaction of marginal Tropical Storm Danny (1985) with an upper-tropospheric positive potential vorticity anomaly was examined. The intensification mechanism proposed earlier for mature Hurricane Elena appears to be valid for Danny as well, despite significant differences in the synoptic-scale environment and in the stage of the tropical cyclone prior(More)
In this article, we summarize current forecasting practice, the performance of the forecasting enterprise, and the impacts of tropical cyclones from a meteorological perspective. In the past, a forecast was considered successful if it predicted the hurricane’s position and intensity 12–72 h into the future. By the 1990s, forecast users came to expect more(More)
The impact of hurricanes is so devastating throughout different levels of society that there is a pressing need to provide a range of users with accurate and timely information that can enable effective planning for and response to potential hurricane landfalls. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) code is the latest numerical model that has been(More)
Tropical-cyclone (TC) structure and structure change, including intensification and weakening, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Knowledge and techniques within each sub-topic here have seen significant advancement during the last decade, much of it during the four years since IWTC-5. A more detailed understanding of the inhibitory role of shear of(More)