Howard Kunreuther

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This article applies an earlier analysis of interdependent security issues to a general class of problems involving discrete interdependent exposure to terrorist risks. Any agent’s incentive to adopt risk-reducing measures depends on the actions of others because of the negative externalities created by not investing in protection. Using airline security as(More)
Losses from natural disasters have increased in recent years due to growth of population in hazard-prone areas and inadequate enforcement of building codes. This article first examines why homeowners have not voluntarily adopted cost-effective protective measures and have limited interest in purchasing insurance. It then proposes a disaster-management(More)
This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naı̈ve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult(More)
This paper compares the behavior of individuals playing a classic two-person deterministic prisoner’s dilemma (PD) game with choice data obtained from repeated interdependent security prisoner’s dilemma games with varying probabilities of loss and the ability to learn (or not learn) about the actions of one’s counterpart, an area of recent interest in(More)
This article provides a systematic framework for the analysis and improvement of near-miss programs in the chemical process industries. Near-miss programs improve corporate environmental, health, and safety (EHS) performance through the identification and management of near misses. Based on more than 100 interviews at 20 chemical and pharmaceutical(More)
The tragic attacks of September 11 and the bioterrorist threats with respect to anthrax that followed have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This paper discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment(More)
Public health analyses suggest that, in spite of the possibility that pertussis vaccine may cause rare cases of neurological injury, catastrophic risks to individual children are lower if they are vaccinated. A number of parents, however, choose not to vaccinate their children. The purpose of this study was to investigate the decision processes of some(More)