Herman H. Shugart

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For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and(More)
Greenhouse gases released by human activities are the dominant forcing in anomalously high latter twentieth century temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, overriding a millennial-scale cooling trend due to astronomical forcing ABSTRACT Aim To understand drivers of vegetation type distribution and sensitivity to climate change. Methods A logistic(More)
In many cases model integration treats models as software components only, ignoring the fluid relationship between models and reality, the evolving nature of models and their constant modification and recalibration. As a result, with integrated models we find increased complexity, where changes that used to impact only relatively contained models of(More)
This is a preliminary PDF of the author-produced manuscript that has been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication. Since it is being posted so soon after acceptance, it has not yet been copyedited, formatted, or processed by AMS Publications. This preliminary version of the manuscript may be downloaded, distributed, and cited, but please be aware that(More)
A succession model for mixed evergreen forests of the southern Cape, South Africa, called OUTENIQUA, was developed based on one for subtropical rain forest in New South Wales, Australia. The model simulates the regeneration, growth and mortality on a 0.04 ha plot using an individual-tree based modeling approach to forest succession. The OUTENIQUA model was(More)
Understanding patterns of biodiversity distribution is essential to conservation strategies, but severe data constraints make surrogate measures necessary. For this reason, many studies have tested the performance of terrestrial vertebrates as surrogates for overall species diversity, but these tests have typically been limited to a single taxon or region.(More)
Russian boreal forests are subject to frequent wildfires. The resulting combustion of large amounts of biomass not only transforms forest vegetation, but it also creates significant carbon emissions that total, according to some authors, from 35–94 Mt C per year. These carbon emissions from forest fires should be considered an important part of the forest(More)
The growth of human populations around protected areas accelerates land conversion and isolation, negatively impacting biodiversity and ecosystem function, and can be exacerbated by immigration. It is often assumed that immigration around protected areas is driven by attraction in the form of economic benefits, but in many cases, people may be pushed from(More)
This chapter considers the current state of Siberian terrestrial ecosystems, their spatial distribution, and major biometric characteristics. Ongoing climate change and the dramatic increase of accompanying anthropogenic pressure provide different but mostly negative impacts on Siberian ecosystems. Future climates of the region may lead to substantial(More)
Few old-growth stands remain in the matrix of secondary forests that dominates the eastern North American landscape. These remnant stands offer insight on the potential carbon (C) storage capacity of now-recovering secondary forests. We surveyed the remaining old-growth forests on sites characteristic of the general Mid-Atlantic United States and estimated(More)