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Great uncertainty exists in conducting dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens. The data to support quantitative modeling of dose-response relationships are meager. Our philosophy in developing methodology to conduct microbial risk assessments has been to rely on data analysis and formal inferencing from the available data in constructing(More)
Survival curves of a cocktail of eight serotypes of Salmonella in ground poultry of different fat levels (1-12%), when heated rapidly to specified temperatures (58-65 degrees C), were examined. Because many of the survival curves were concave, values for two parameters: the asymptotic D-value and the "lag" times were estimated and used to develop secondary(More)
Because of numerous reported foodborne illness cases due to non-O157:H7 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) bacteria in the United States and elsewhere, interest in requiring better control of these pathogens in the food supply has increased. Successfully putting forth regulations depends upon cost-benefit analyses. Policy decisions often depend(More)
Microbial risk assessment is emerging as a new discipline in risk assessment. A systematic approach to microbial risk assessment is presented that employs data analysis for developing parsimonious models and accounts formally for the variability and uncertainty of model inputs using analysis of variance and Monte Carlo simulation. The purpose of the paper(More)
problem epidemiologically (through careful investigation of trends in mortality and morbidity) before formulating a practical solution or policy. It was a method which, Eyler plausibly argues, led to socially sensitive and constructive ideas and policies which, if pursued in the longer term at national level might have led to earlier remedial action on(More)
In 1998, the United States Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Food and Drug Administration completed a risk assessment that indicated multiple interventions along the farm-to-table chain were needed to reduce the risk of human illness from Salmonella Enteritidis in shell eggs. Based on newly available data and(More)
Analyses of survival data of a mixture of Salmonella spp. at fixed temperatures between 55 degrees C (131 degrees F) and 71.1 degrees C (160 degrees F) in ground beef matrices containing concentrations of salt between 0 and 4.5%, concentrations of sodium pyrophosphate (SPP) between 0 and 0.5%, and concentrations of sodium lactate (NaL) between 0 and 4.5%(More)
  • Harry M Marks
  • 2003
Between 1900 and 1940, at least 100,000 individuals in the southern United States died of pellagra, a dietary deficiency disease. Although half of these pellagra victims were African-American and more than two-thirds were women, contemporary observers paid little attention to these gender and racial differences in their analyses of disease. This article(More)
Risk assessments of pathogens need to account for the growth of small number of cells under varying conditions. In order to determine the possible risks that occur when there are small numbers of cells, stochastic models of growth are needed that would capture the distribution of the number of cells over replicate trials of the same scenario or(More)
This paper considers growth models including one based on Baranyi's equations for growth and the other based on the logistic function. Using a common approach for constructing dynamic models for predicting Clostridium perfringens growth in ready-to-eat uncured beef during cooling, there was no appreciable difference between the models' predictions when the(More)