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Microbial risk assessment is emerging as a new discipline in risk assessment. A systematic approach to microbial risk assessment is presented that employs data analysis for developing parsimonious models and accounts formally for the variability and uncertainty of model inputs using analysis of variance and Monte Carlo simulation. The purpose of the paper(More)
Survival curves of a cocktail of eight serotypes of Salmonella in ground poultry of different fat levels (1-12%), when heated rapidly to specified temperatures (58-65 degrees C), were examined. Because many of the survival curves were concave, values for two parameters: the asymptotic D-value and the "lag" times were estimated and used to develop secondary(More)
Great uncertainty exists in conducting dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens. The data to support quantitative modeling of dose-response relationships are meager. Our philosophy in developing methodology to conduct microbial risk assessments has been to rely on data analysis and formal inferencing from the available data in constructing(More)
The objective of this study was to develop a model to predict the growth of C. perfringens from spores at temperatures applicable to the cooling of cooked cured meat products. C. perfringens growth from spores was not observed at a temperature of Ž . 12 C for up to 3 weeks. The two parameters: germination, outgrowth, and lag GOL time and exponential growth(More)
The abilities of cells of a particular type of bacteria to leave lag phase and begin the process of dividing or surviving heat treatment can depend on the serotypes or strains of the bacteria. This article reports an investigation of serotype-specific differences in growth and heat resistance kinetics of clinical and food isolates of Salmonella. Growth(More)
Because of numerous reported foodborne illness cases due to non-O157:H7 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) bacteria in the United States and elsewhere, interest in requiring better control of these pathogens in the food supply has increased. Successfully putting forth regulations depends upon cost-benefit analyses. Policy decisions often depend(More)
Risk assessments of pathogens need to account for the growth of small number of cells under varying conditions. In order to determine the possible risks that occur when there are small numbers of cells, stochastic models of growth are needed that would capture the distribution of the number of cells over replicate trials of the same scenario or(More)
In order to estimate the risk or probability of adverse events in risk assessment, it is necessary to identify the important variables that contribute to the risk and provide descriptions of distributions of these variables for well-defined populations. One component of modeling dose response that can create uncertainty is the inherent genetic variability(More)
In 1998, the United States Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Food and Drug Administration completed a risk assessment that indicated multiple interventions along the farm-to-table chain were needed to reduce the risk of human illness from Salmonella Enteritidis in shell eggs. Based on newly available data and(More)