Hans van Meijl

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Genetically modified (GM) cotton is widely adopted and the list of GM technologies in trials is impressive in China. At the same time there is an active debate on when China should commercialize its GM food crops. This paper provides an economy-wide assessment of some of the issues surrounding the adoption and commercialization of biotechnology. Based on(More)
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to(More)
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty 10 due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this paper we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized(More)
The continuing process of global integration bears implications for farmers and related supplying and processing industries in all parts of the world, but also for the rest of the world economy. An assessment of agricultural and trade policy impacts is bound to be complex and is often supported by quantitative modeling analysis. This article provides an(More)
This paper compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partial versus economywide—and in how they represent technology and(More)
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using(More)
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can(More)
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Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse(More)