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Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events
Before the recent recession, the consensus among researchers was that the zero lower bound (ZLB) probably would not pose a significant problem for monetary policy as long as a central bank aimed forExpand
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching
Interest rate rules for monetary policy and tax rules for fiscal policy change stochastically between two regimes. In the first regime monetary policy follows the Taylor principle and taxes riseExpand
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What Has Financed Government Debt?
Dynamic rational expectations models imply that the real value of debt in the hands of the public must be equal to the expected present-value of surpluses. We impose this equilibrium condition on anExpand
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Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit
We simulate the FRB/US model and a number of statistical models to quantify some of the risks stemming from the effective lower bound (ELB) on the federal funds rate and to assess the efficacy ofExpand
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The Effects of Forward Guidance in Three Macro Models
With the federal funds rate at its effective zero lower bound since the end of 2008, much attention has been focused on estimating the effects of "unconventional" monetary policy actions, such asExpand
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Estimating the macroeconomic effects of the Fed’s asset purchases
An analysis shows that the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases have been effective at reducing the economic costs of the zero lower bound on interest rates. Model simulations indicate that,Expand
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Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
We explore the importance of the nature of nominal price and wage adjustment for the design of effective monetary policy strategies, especially at the zero lower bound. Our analysis suggests thatExpand
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Have We Underestimated the Probability of Hitting the Zero Lower Bound ? PELIMINARY DRAFT NOT FOR
The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of SanExpand
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