• Publications
  • Influence
Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing.
Some authors questioned the ecological validity of judgmental biases demonstrated in the laboratory. One objection to these demonstrations is that evolutionary pressures would have rendered such
The sunk cost and Concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals?
The sunk cost effect is a maladaptive economic behavior that is manifested in a greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made. The Concorde
Impediments to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize their impact.
  • H. Arkes
  • Psychology
    Journal of consulting and clinical psychology
  • 1 June 1981
The psychology of waste.
In order to avoid the appearance of wastefulness people may be motivated to make choices that compromise their own self-interest. In Experiment 1 subjects learned that Mr Munn didn't take advantage
The Psychology of Windfall Gains
Abstract We hypothesized that windfall gains are spent more readily than other types of assets. Three questionnaire studies supported this hypothesis and led us to the conclusion that the
Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting
Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature. Judgmental overconfidence leads people (1) to neglect decision aids, (2) to make predictions contrary to the base rate, and
Regret, Valuation, and Inaction Inertia
Abstract In three experiments we sought to determine the cause of the “inaction inertia” effect, which occurs when bypassing an initial opportunity decreases the likelihood that a subsequent similar
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