Guy Séverin Mahiane

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OBJECTIVE To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. METHODS The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from(More)
We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model to express the incidence rate in terms of the prevalence and its derivatives as well as the difference in mortality rate, and b) a(More)
BED estimates of HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys are obtained by restricting, to fixed time T, the period over which incidence is estimated. The appropriate mean recency duration (Ω(T)) then refers to the time where BED optical density (OD) is less than a pre-set cut-off C, given the patient has been HIV positive for at most time T. Five methods,(More)
Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the(More)
BACKGROUND Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) trends to inform program planning and resource allocation. METHODS The Spectrum modeling tool estimated prevalence and incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Morocco's 15- to 49-year-old population, based on prevalence(More)
Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning. Nested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools,(More)
BACKGROUND Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The(More)
BACKGROUND Youth have residual thymic tissue and potentially greater capacity for immune reconstitution than adults after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). However, youth face behavioral and psychosocial challenges that may make them more likely than adults to delay ART initiation and less likely to attain similar CD4 outcomes after(More)
BACKGROUND The objectives of this study were to determine the capacity of BED incidence testing to a) estimate the effect of a HIV prevention intervention and b) provide adequate statistical power, when used among young people from sub-Saharan African settings with high HIV incidence rates. METHODS Firstly, after having elaborated plausible scenarios(More)
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