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Meltzer (The transmission process. In Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, 2001) shows that real monetary base growth is a significant determinant of consumption growth in the US, controlling for the short-term real interest rate. In this paper, I show that the same property of base money holds for total output (relative to trend or(More)
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper examines the(More)
The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the U.S., Germany, Japan and Canada. The results of(More)
University and HWWA. We are grateful to Hali Edison of the Federal Reserve Board and Gabriele Galati of the BIS for providing the long-term government bond yield data, and to Advin Pagtakhan for excellent research assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a joint seminar of the HWWA and Hamburg University on May 2, 5 Contents Abstract 6(More)
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper empirically(More)
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Intercreditor equity(More)
The paper studies export pricing to market (PTM) in a " small-country " context using a panel of disaggre-gated exports from Hong Kong since 1992. Conventional wisdom is that PTM is commonplace—except for US exports. This study provides a benchmark by which to interpret the puzzling behavior of US export prices. Empirically, Hong Kong's export price(More)