Guillermo P. Podestá

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In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers decision-making, i.e., mitigate negative impacts of adverse conditions or take advantage of favorable conditions. However, various conditions must be met for a forecast to result in enhanced(More)
[1] We propose a semiparametric multivariate weather generator with greater ability to reproduce the historical statistics, especially the wet and dry spells. The proposed approach has two steps: (1) a Markov Chain for generating the precipitation state (i.e., no rain, rain, or heavy rain), and (2) a k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) bootstrap resampler for(More)
In recent decades, the impacts of climate on society and on human well-being have attracted increasing amounts of attention, and the forecasts that predict such impacts have become more accurate. Forecasts are now distributed and used more widely than they were in the past. This article reviews three cases of such use of forecasts in Latin America. It shows(More)
1 Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, USA gpodesta@rsmas.miami.edu, dletson@rsmas.miami.edu 2 Columbia University, Department of Psychology and Graduate School of Business, and Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED), USA euw2@columbia.edu 3 Facultad de Ingenieŕıa, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina(More)
A micro-level agent-based model of innovation diffusion was developed that explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages or relative utility derived from adoption, and (b) social influence from members of the individual's social network. The micro-model was used to simulate macro-level diffusion patterns emerging from different(More)
The sensitivity of CERES-Maize yield predictions to uncertainty in a set of soil-related parameters and solar radiation was evaluated in Pergamino, in the Argentine Pampas. Maize yields were simulated for Pergamino using a 31 years climatic record for a range of values of a group of important model input variables. The input variables considered (and the(More)
The psychological influence of ownership, albeit well studied in the lab, is less understood in the field. We examine its influence on agribusiness goals and decisions in the Argentine Pampas. Study 1, a survey of agribusinesses, finds differences in goal focus based on land ownership: Ownership positively predicts a focus on longer-term economic and social(More)
The availability of enhanced climate forecasts offers the potential for farmers to improve responses to climate variability. However, few studies have demonstrated actual effective uses of climate forecasts. Through interaction with regional agricultural experts, we evaluated the opportunities and constraints involved in the use of climate information in(More)
Modeling complex natural and human systems to support policy or management decision making is becoming increasingly common. The resulting models are often designed and implemented by researchers or domain experts with limited software engineering expertise. To help this important audience, we present our experience and share lessons learned from the design(More)