Gregory D. Hess

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We investigate the empirical impact of violence as compared to other trade impediments on trade flows. Our analysis is based on a panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 1999, which brings together information from the Rose [2004] dataset, the ITERATE dataset for terrorist events, and datasets of external and internal conflict.(More)
If an economic time series behaves asymmetrically, then an interpretation of economic fluctuations based on linear time-series models could be misleading. Beaudry and Koop (1993) recently argued that for post-war US GDP data there exists a statistically significant difference in persistence between negative and positive shocks. We demonstrate that their(More)
War, whether external or internal, large or small, is a costly endeavor. Loss of life, loss of close friends or family, and the destruction of material possessions all play a part in the costs of war. The purpose of this paper is to capture only the material, economic welfare costs of conflict stemming from the altered path of consumption resulting from(More)
∗ This paper has benefited from comments by Robert Topel, Adolfo Barajas, Gary Becker, Mark Bils, Allan Brunner, Willem Buiter, Ralph Chami, Ben Craig, Dennis Epple, Athanasios Orphanides, Peter Rupert, Andre Santos, Steve Sheppard, Cheng Wang, Melvyn Weeks and seminar participants at Carnegie Mellon (GSIA), Case Western and DePaul Universities,(More)
This paper constructs and examines a macroeconomic model which combines features from both real and political business cycle models. We augment a standard real business cycle tax model by allowing for varying levels of government partisanship and competence in order to replicate two important empirical regularities: First, that on average the economy(More)
The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is a joint project between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, CSIRO Energy Technology, the Environment Protection Authority Victoria and the New South Wales Environment Protection Authority to develop a highresolution numerical air quality forecasting system. Currently 24 to 36-hour(More)
In this paper, we develop and explore the implications of an economic model that links the incidence of terrorism in a country to the economic circumstances facing that country. We briefly sketch out a theory, in the spirit of Tornell (1998), that describes terrorist activities as being initiated by groups that are unhappy with the current economic status(More)