In defence of the value free ideal
- Gregor Betz
- Philosophy
- 12 January 2013
The ideal of value free science states that the justification of scientific findings should not be based on non-epistemic (e.g. moral or political) values. It has been criticized on the grounds that…
Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models
- A. Srivastava, Abhinav Rastogi, Uri Shaham
- Computer ScienceArXiv
- 9 June 2022
Evaluation of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters finds that model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms.
The case for climate engineering research: an analysis of the “arm the future” argument
- Gregor Betz
- Environmental ScienceClimatic Change
- 1 March 2012
With the evidence for anthropogenic climate change piling up, suggesting that climate impacts of GHG emissions might have been underestimated in the past (Allison et al. 2009; WBGU 2009), and…
What’s the Worst Case? The Methodology of Possibilistic Prediction
- Gregor Betz
- Philosophy
- 1 May 2010
Abstract Frank Knight (1921) famously distinguished the epistemic modes of certainty, risk, and uncertainty in order to characterize situations where deterministic, probabilistic or possibilistic…
Analysing Practical Argumentation
- G. Brun, Gregor Betz
- Philosophy
- 2016
Argument analysis is a powerful tool for structuring policy deliberation and decision-making, especially when complexity and uncertainty loom large. Argument analysis seeks to determine which claims…
Debate Dynamics: How Controversy Improves Our Beliefs
- Gregor Betz
- Philosophy
- 15 August 2012
Is critical argumentation an effective way to overcome disagreement? And does the exchange of arguments bring opponents in a controversy closer to the truth? This study provides a new perspective on…
Dialog-Based Online Argumentation
- Tobias Krauthoff, M. Baurmann, Gregor Betz, M. Mauve
- Computer ScienceComma
- 2016
A novel approach to online argumentation that avoids the pitfalls of unstructured systems such as asynchronous threaded discussions and is usable by any participant without training while still supporting the full complexity of real-world argumentation is proposed.
Are climate models credible worlds? Prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction
- Gregor Betz
- Philosophy, Environmental Science
- 22 February 2015
The concepts of a perfect and of an imperfect credible world are introduced, and whether climate models can be interpreted as imperfect credible worlds are discussed, to allow one to use models for possibilistic prediction and salvage widespread scientific practice.
Probabilities in climate policy advice: a critical comment
- Gregor Betz
- Environmental Science
- 8 August 2007
This essay explores as to whether probabilistic climate forecasting is consistent with the prerequisites of democratic scientific policy advice. It argues that, given the boundaries of our current…
Ethical Aspects of Climate Engineering
- Gregor Betz, Sebastian Cacean
- Environmental Science
- 2012
This study investigates the ethical aspects of deploying and researching into so-called climate engineering methods, i.e. large-scale technical interventions in the climate system with the objective…
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