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T o demonstrate post hoc robustness of decision problems to parameter estimates, analysts may conduct a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, assigning distributions to uncertain parameters and computing the probability of decision change. In contrast to classical threshold proximity methods of sensitivity analysis, no appealing graphical methods are(More)
W hen a decision analyst desires a sensitivity analysis on model parameters that are estimated from data, a natural approach is to vary each parameter within one or two standard errors of its estimate. This approach can be problematic if parameter estimates are correlated or if model structure does not permit obvious standard error estimates. Both of these(More)
T he internal rate of return (IRR) is a venerable technique for evaluating deterministic cash flow streams. Part of the difficulty in extending this measure to stochastic cash flows is the lack of coherent methods for accounting for multiple or nonexistent internal rates of return in deterministic streams. Recently such a coherent theory has been developed,(More)
H ealth status is inherently a multiattribute construct. We examine multiattribute utility decompositions for the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) utility model commonly employed in medical decision and cost-effectiveness analyses. We consider several independence conditions on preference, including the classical notions of preferential independence and(More)
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