Gizem Korkmaz

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We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future(More)
Forecasting a domestic political crisis (DPC) in a country of interest is a very useful tool for social scientists and policy makers. A wealth of event data is now available for historical as well as prospective analysis. Using the publicly available GDELT dataset, we illustrate the use of frequent subgraph mining to identify signatures preceding DPCs, and(More)
Social unrest is endemic in many societies, and recent news has drawn attention to happenings in Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Civilian populations mobilize, sometimes spontaneously and sometimes in an organized manner, to raise awareness of key issues or to demand changes in governing or other organizational structures. It is of key(More)
Detecting and forecasting civil unrest events (protests, strikes, etc.) is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers because these events can lead to significant societal and cultural changes. We analyze protest dynamics in six countries of Latin America on a daily level, from November 2012 through August 2014, using multiple data sources that(More)
We develop a dynamic game-theoretic model of information (contagion) propagation using a Facebook-type of communication. The model accounts for information posted on a member’s wall or timeline by her friends, which can be read by all friends. This communication facilitates coordination by creating common knowledge among users. We illustrate subtle features(More)
SPublic health issues, from virus and disease transmission, to the spread of unhealthy behaviors (such as smoking and obesity) are global priorities. They can lead not only to fatalities, but also to decreased quality of life, large expenditures for health care, and the onset of other ailments. Here we present EDISON: a web-based modeling environment that(More)
Computational modeling of information exchange over social media is important for understanding coordination in online environments. Many contagion dynamics models that have been used to model Twitter, Facebook, and blog information transmission are polynomial-time computable, and hence can be efficiently simulated on networked populations. Game-theoretic(More)
While simulation has been used extensively to model supply chain processes, the use of a Bayesian approach has been limited. However, Bayesian modeling brings key advantages, especially in cases of uncertainty. In this paper, we develop a data informatics model that could be used to realize a digital synchronized supply chain. To realize this model, we(More)
We develop a dynamic game-theoretic model of information (contagion) propagation using a Facebook-type of communication. The model accounts for information posted on a member’s wall or timeline by her friends, which can be read by all friends. This communication facilitates coordination by creating common knowledge among users. We illustrate subtle features(More)
Civil unrest events (protests, strikes, and “occupy” events) range from small, nonviolent protests that address specific issues to events that turn into large-scale riots. Detecting and forecasting these events is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers because they can lead to significant societal and cultural changes. We forecast civil(More)