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We present a theory of excess stock market volatility, in which market movements are due to trades by very large institutional investors in relatively illiquid markets. Such trades generate significant spikes in returns and volume, even in the absence of important news about fundamentals. We derive the optimal trading behavior of these investors, which(More)
Dividend increasing firms experience a significant decline in their systematic risk. They also experience a decline in profitability in the years after the dividend change and there is no evidence that firms that pay more dividends increase investments in future projects. Announcement-period market reaction to a dividend increase is significantly related to(More)
We examine the dynamic relation between return and volume of individual stocks. Using a simple model in which investors trade to share risk or speculate on private information, we show that returns generated by risk-sharing trades tend to reverse themselves, while returns generated by speculative trades tend to continue themselves. We test this theoretical(More)
This paper studies market activity in the ―millisecond environment,‖ where computer algorithms respond to each other almost instantaneously. Using order-level NASDAQ data, we find that the millisecond environment consists of activity by some traders who respond to market events (like changes in the limit order book) within roughly 2-3 ms, and others who(More)
We study pre-trade transparency by looking at the introduction of NYSE’s OpenBook service that provides limit-order book information to traders off the exchange floor. We find that traders attempt to manage limit-order exposure: They submit smaller orders and cancel orders faster. Specialists’ participation rate and the depth they add to the quote decline.(More)
The idea that extreme trading activity contains information about the future evolution of stock prices is investigated. We find that stocks experiencing unusually high ~low! trading volume over a day or a week tend to appreciate ~depreciate! over the course of the following month. We argue that this high-volume return premium is consistent with the idea(More)
The usual economic perspective on a limit order emphasizes its role in supplying liquidity. We investigate the trading of 300 Nasdaq-listed stocks on the Island ECN, an electronic communication network organized as a limit order book. We find that a substantial portion of the limit orders are cancelled within an extremely brief time. We term “fleeting(More)
We investigate directly whether analyst behavior influenced the likelihood of banks winning underwriting mandates for a sample of 16,625 U.S. debt and equity offerings sold between December 1993 and June 2002. We control for the strength of the issuer’s investment-banking relationships with potential competitors for the mandate, prior lending relationships,(More)
We use a laboratory market to investigate the behavior of noise traders and their impact on the market. Our experiment features informed traders (who possess fundamental information), liquidity traders (who have to trade for exogenous reasons), and noise traders (who do not possess fundamental information and have no exogenous reasons to trade). We find(More)