[1] The critical point hypothesis for large earthquakes predicts two different precursory phenomena in space and time, an accelerating moment release and the growth of the spatial correlation length.… (More)

A systematic test on seismic quiescence occurring before large earthquakes is conducted. For a fixed geographical location, the degree of clustering in space and time is analysed and the results are… (More)

[1] We show that realistic aftershock sequences with space-time characteristics compatible with observations are generated by a model consisting of brittle fault segments separated by creeping zones.… (More)

Stress drop is a key factor in earthquake mechanics and engineering seismology. However, stress drop calculations based on fault slip can be significantly biased, particularly due to subjectively… (More)

We explore the concept of maximum possible earthquake magnitude, M, in a region represented by an earthquake catalog from the viewpoint of statistical testing. For this aim, we assume that earthquake… (More)

We present a Bayesian method that allows to continuously update the aperiodicity of the recurrence time distribution of large earthquakes based on a catalog with magnitudes above a completeness… (More)

Seismicity, Critical States of: FromModels to Practical Seismic Hazard Estimates Space GERT ZÖLLER1, SEBASTIAN HAINZL2, YEHUDA BEN-ZION3, MATTHIAS HOLSCHNEIDER1 1 Institute of Mathematics and Centre… (More)

We investigate the influence of spatial heterogeneities on various aspects of brittle failure and seismicity in a model of a large strike-slip fault. The model dynamics is governed by realistic… (More)

Earthquake simulators become increasingly important with respect to seismic hazard assessment. It is, therefore, a crucial question whether the imposed simplifications, e.g. reducing fully dynamic to… (More)

S U M M A R Y We present a strategy for estimating the recurrence times between large earthquakes and associated seismic hazard on a given fault section. The goal of the analysis is to address two… (More)