Gergely Röst

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Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible(More)
The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the(More)
BACKGROUND The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these(More)
BACKGROUND With the rise of the second pandemic wave of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in the current season in the Northern Hemisphere, pandemic plans are being carefully re-evaluated, particularly for the strategic use of antiviral drugs. The recent emergence of oseltamivir-resistant in treated H1N1 patients has raised concerns about the prudent use(More)
A new SEIR model with distributed infinite delay is derived when the infectivity depends on the age of infection. The basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold quantity for the stability of equilibria, is calculated. If R0 < 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and this is the only equilibrium. On the contrary, if(More)
Recently, particular counterexamples were constructed to some theorems of a previous paper, concerning the global attractivity of the positive equilibrium for the delay equation _ pðtÞ ¼ bp m ðt À sÞ 1 þ p n ðt À sÞ À cpðtÞ: The purpose of this note is to explore the underlying phenomenon from a more general point of view, and to give an explanation of the(More)
Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling of vaccination during a pandemic influenza outbreak, when there is a race between the vaccination campaign and the(More)
A reaction diffusion system with time delay is proposed for virus spread on bacteria immobilized on an agar-coated plate. The delay explicitly accounts for a virus latent period of fixed duration. An interval of possible spreading speeds for virus infection is established, and traveling wave solutions are shown to exist. Linear determinacy of spreading(More)
Identifying the steady states of a population is a key issue in theoretical ecology, that includes the study of spatially heterogeneous populations. There are several examples of real ecosystems in patchy environments where the habitats are heterogeneous in their local density dependence. We investigate a multi-patch model of a single species with spatial(More)