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  • Richard H Moss, Jae A Edmonds, Kathy A Hibbard, Martin R Manning, Steven K Rose, Detlef P van Vuuren +13 others
  • 2010
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative(More)
A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second(More)
One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations(More)
Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the(More)
Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model simulations shows that North American temperature changes(More)
Adding the effects of changes in land cover to the A2 and B1 transient climate simulations described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change leads to significantly different regional climates in 2100 as compared with climates resulting from atmospheric SRES forcings alone. Agricultural expansion(More)
Despite hazard mitigation efforts and scientific and technological advances , extreme weather events continue to cause substantial losses. The impacts of extreme weather result from complex interactions among physical and human systems across spatial and temporal scales. This article synthesizes current interdisciplinary knowledge about extreme weather,(More)
assess decadal forecasts it is necessary to identify to what extent regional changes are due to natural climate variations, and are thus transitory, and to what extent they are due to anthropogenic forcing, and are likely to continue. M OTIVATION. An ambitious effort to produce experimental near-term decadal forecasts has begun, motivated by the possibility(More)
  • Johannes Loschnigg, Gerald A Meehl, Peter J Webster, Julie M Arblaster, Gilbert P Compo
The interaction of the Indian Ocean dynamics and the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) is analyzed in the 300-yr control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM). Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and equatorial ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean are associated with the TBO and interannual variability(More)