Geoffrey P. Garnett

Learn More
From an analysis of the distributions of measures of transmission rates among hosts, we identify an empirical relationship suggesting that, typically, 20% of the host population contributes at least 80% of the net transmission potential, as measured by the basic reproduction number, R0. This is an example of a statistical pattern known as the 20/80 rule.(More)
OBJECTIVE To estimate the global prevalence and incidence of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection in 2003. METHODS A systematic review was undertaken of published seroprevalence surveys describing the prevalence or incidence of HSV-2 by age and gender. For each of 12 regions, pooled prevalence values by age and gender were generated in a(More)
BACKGROUND HIV-1 prevalence typically rises more rapidly at young ages in women than in men in sub-Saharan Africa. Greater susceptibility to infection on exposure in women is believed to be a contributory factor as is greater exposure to previously infected sexual partners of the opposite sex. We investigated the latter hypothesis using data from a field(More)
BACKGROUND Candidate human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have demonstrated almost 90%-100% efficacy in preventing persistent, type-specific HPV infection over 18 mo in clinical trials. If these vaccines go on to demonstrate prevention of precancerous lesions in phase III clinical trials, they will be licensed for public use in the near future. How these(More)
Substantial changes are needed to achieve a more targeted and strategic approach to investment in the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic that will yield long-term dividends. Until now, advocacy for resources has been done on the basis of a commodity approach that encouraged scaling up of numerous strategies in parallel, irrespective of their relative(More)
Few sub-Saharan African countries have witnessed declines in HIV prevalence, and only Uganda has compelling evidence for a decline founded on sexual behavior change. We report a decline in HIV prevalence in eastern Zimbabwe between 1998 and 2003 associated with sexual behavior change in four distinct socioeconomic strata. HIV prevalence fell most steeply at(More)
AIDS has increased the number of orphans and vulnerable children (OVCs) in sub-Saharan Africa who could suffer detrimental life experiences. We investigated whether OVCs have heightened risks of adverse reproductive health outcomes including HIV infection. Data on HIV infection, sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms and pregnancy, and common risk(More)
OBJECTIVES To measure HIV-1 discordance among migrant and non-migrant men and their rural partners, and to estimate the relative risk of infection from inside versus outside primary relationships. DESIGN A cross-sectional behavioural and HIV-1 seroprevalence survey among 168 couples in which the male partner either a migrant, or not. METHODS A detailed(More)
BACKGROUND WHO advocates the use of directly observed treatment with a short-course drug regimen as part of the DOTS strategy, but the potential effect of this strategy worldwide has not been investigated. METHODS We developed an age-structured mathematical model to explore the characteristics of tuberculosis control under DOTS, and to forecast the effect(More)
BACKGROUND The use of antiviral medications by HIV negative people to prevent acquisition of HIV or pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has shown promising results in recent trials. To understand the potential impact of PrEP for HIV prevention, in addition to efficacy data, we need to understand both the acceptability of PrEP among members of potential user(More)