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BACKGROUND HIV-1 prevalence typically rises more rapidly at young ages in women than in men in sub-Saharan Africa. Greater susceptibility to infection on exposure in women is believed to be a contributory factor as is greater exposure to previously infected sexual partners of the opposite sex. We investigated the latter hypothesis using data from a field(More)
Substantial changes are needed to achieve a more targeted and strategic approach to investment in the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic that will yield long-term dividends. Until now, advocacy for resources has been done on the basis of a commodity approach that encouraged scaling up of numerous strategies in parallel, irrespective of their relative(More)
BACKGROUND WHO advocates the use of directly observed treatment with a short-course drug regimen as part of the DOTS strategy, but the potential effect of this strategy worldwide has not been investigated. METHODS We developed an age-structured mathematical model to explore the characteristics of tuberculosis control under DOTS, and to forecast the effect(More)
BACKGROUND Sexually transmitted infections spread through a network of contacts created by the formation of sexual partnerships. In physics, networks have been characterized as "scale-free" if they follow a power law with an exponent between 2 and 3. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to test statistically whether distributions of numbers of sexual(More)
OBJECTIVES To measure HIV-1 discordance among migrant and non-migrant men and their rural partners, and to estimate the relative risk of infection from inside versus outside primary relationships. DESIGN A cross-sectional behavioural and HIV-1 seroprevalence survey among 168 couples in which the male partner either a migrant, or not. METHODS A detailed(More)
OBJECTIVE To monitor the HIV-1 epidemic in Western Uganda and the possible impact of interventions. DESIGN Results from sentinel surveillance of HIV-1 seroprevalence were compared with cross-sectional serosurvey data and model simulations. METHODS Age-specific trends in HIV-1 prevalence between 1991 and 1997 amongst antenatal clinic (ANC) attenders in(More)
BACKGROUND The use of antiviral medications by HIV negative people to prevent acquisition of HIV or pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has shown promising results in recent trials. To understand the potential impact of PrEP for HIV prevention, in addition to efficacy data, we need to understand both the acceptability of PrEP among members of potential user(More)
BACKGROUND Cash-transfer programmes can improve the wellbeing of vulnerable children, but few studies have rigorously assessed their effectiveness in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the effects of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) and conditional cash transfers (CCTs) on birth registration, vaccination uptake, and school attendance in children in(More)
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES The concept of a core group of individuals who change sexual partners frequently has played an important role in the study of the epidemiology of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). It is widely believed that the core group is important in the persistence of infection and that it provides a sensible target for control(More)
The paper describes the development and analysis of a mathematical model of the spread and demographic impact of HIV in heterosexual communities in developing countries. The model extends previous work in this area by the representation of patterns of mixing between and within different age and sexual activity classes in a two sex structure. Summary(More)