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To Explain or to Predict
- Galit Shmueli
- 5 January 2011
The purpose of this article is to clarify the distinction between explanatory and predictive modeling, to discuss its sources, and to reveal the practical implications of the distinction to each step in the modeling process.
A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: revival of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution
Summary. A useful discrete distribution (the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution) is revived and its statistical and probabilistic properties are introduced and explored. This distribution is a…
Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research
To show that predictive analytics and explanatory statistical modeling are fundamentally disparate, it is shown that they are different in each step of the modeling process and these differences translate into different final models, so that a pure explanatory statistical model is best tuned for testing causal hypotheses and a pure predictive models is best in terms of predictive power.
Predictive model assessment in PLS-SEM: guidelines for using PLSpredict
Clear guidelines for using PLSpredict are offered, which researchers and practitioners should routinely apply as part of their PLS-SEM analyses and the key choices researchers need to make using the procedure are explained.
Research Commentary - Too Big to Fail: Large Samples and the p-Value Problem
This research commentary recommends a series of actions the researcher can take to mitigate the p-value problem in large samples and illustrates them with an example of over 300,000 camera sales on eBay.
To Explain or To Predict?
- Galit Shmueli
- 24 May 2010
The purpose of this article is to clarify the distinction between explanatory and predictive modeling, to discuss its sources, and to reveal the practical implications of the distinction to each step in the model- ing process.
A Flexible Regression Model for Count Data
Poisson regression is a popular tool for modeling count data and is applied in a vast array of applications from the social to the physical sciences and beyond. Real data, however, are often over- or…
Statistical Challenges Facing Early Outbreak Detection in Biosurveillance
This work focuses mainly on the monitoring of time series to provide early alerts of anomalies to stimulate investigation of potential outbreaks, with a brief summary of methods to detect significant spatial and spatiotemporal case clusters.
Consumer Surplus in Online Auctions
It is found that eBay's auctions generate at at least $7.05 billion in total consumer surplus in the year 2003 and may generate up to $ 7.68 billion if the private value sealed-bid assumption does not hold.
Automated time series forecasting for biosurveillance
Improved predictions are achieved with such tuning of the Holt-Winters method, but practical use of such improvements for routine surveillance will require reliable data classification methods.