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The application of traditional forecasting methods to discrete count data yields forecasts that are non-coherent. That is, such methods produce non-integer point and interval predictions which violate the restrictions on the sample space of the integer variable. This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for producing coherent forecasts of low count timeâ€¦ (More)

- Pierre Barrillon, Sylvie Blin, +5 authors Nathalie Seguin-Moreau
- 2006 IEEE Nuclear Science Symposium Conferenceâ€¦
- 2006

For the ATLAS luminometer, made of Roman pots, a complete readout ASIC has been designed in 0.35 SiGe technology. It is used to readout 64 channels multi anode photomultipliers and supplies 64 trigger outputs and a multiplexed charge. Since its delivery in November 2005, the MAROC chip has been tested at LAL. Despite a substrate coupling effect whichâ€¦ (More)

- Chris M. Strickland, Catherine S. Forbes, Gael M. Martin
- Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
- 2006

A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed for estimating the stochastic conditional duration model. The conditional mean of durations between trades is modelled as a latent stochastic process, with the conditional distribution of durations having positive support. Regressors are included in the latent process model in order to allow forâ€¦ (More)

A general parametric framework based on the generalized Student t distribution is developed for pricing S&P500 options. Higher order moments in stock returns as well as time-varying volatility are priced. An important computational advantage of the proposed framework over Monte Carlo-based pricing methods is that options can be priced using one-dimensionalâ€¦ (More)

- Cheng Chih Liu, John M. Maheu, Gael M. Martin, Alex Maynard, Angelo Melino
- 2008

Constructed from high-frequency data, realized volatility (RV) provides an accurate estimate of the unobserved volatility of financial markets. This paper uses a Bayesian approach to investigate the evidence for structural breaks in reduced form time-series models of RV. We focus on the popular heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models of the logarithm ofâ€¦ (More)

- Chris M. Strickland, Gael M. Martin, Catherine S. Forbes
- Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
- 2008

The impact of parameterisation on the simulation efficiency of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for two nonGaussian state space models is examined. Specifically, focus is given to particular forms of the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model and the stochastic volatility (SV) model, with four alternative parameterisations of eachâ€¦ (More)

In this paper Bayesian methods are applied to a stochastic volatility model using both the prices of the asset and the prices of options written on the asset. Posterior densities for all model parameters, latent volatilities and the market price of volatility risk are produced via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Candidate draws for theâ€¦ (More)

This paper demonstrates the application of Bayesian simulation-based estimation to a class of interest rate models known as Affine Term Structure (ATS) models. The technique used is based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, with the discrete observations on yields augmented by additional higher frequency latent data. The introduction of augmented yieldâ€¦ (More)

- Gael M. Martin, Catherine S. Forbes, Vance L. Martinb
- 2003

A Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented, in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly via observed option prices. A range of models allowing for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time-varying volatility in returns are considered, with posterior parameter distributions and model probabilitiesâ€¦ (More)

This paper assesses the robustness of the relative performance of spotand optionsbased volatility forecasts to the treatment of microstructure noise. Robustness of the results to the method of constructing option-implied forecasts is also investigated. Using a test for superior predictive ability, model-free implied volatility, which exploits information inâ€¦ (More)