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Skillfully predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of potential societal significance and a useful test of our understanding of the factors controlling hurricane activity. In this paper, a statistical– dynamical hurricane forecasting system, based on a statistical hurricane model, with explicit uncertainty estimates, and built from(More)
21 22 2 ABSTRACT 1 2 Tropical cyclones – particularly intense ones – are a hazard to life and property, so an 3 assessment of the changes in North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity has important 4 socioeconomic implications. In this study we focus on the seasonally integrated Power 5 Dissipation Index (PDI) as a metric to project changes in tropical(More)
20 Twenty-first century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the 21 robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multi-model ensembles using the 22 CMIP3/A1B (Late 21 st century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (Early and Late 21 st century) scenarios are 23 examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of(More)
The impact of future anthropogenic forcing on the frequency of tropical storms in the North Atlantic basin has been the subject of intensive investigation. However, whether the number of North Atlantic tropical storms will increase or decrease in a warmer climate is still heavily debated and a consensus has yet to be reached. To shed light on this issue,(More)
[1] The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/(More)
High-resolution climate models can now simulate many aspects of tropical cyclone climate, but a theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive. Abstract 23 24 While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, 25 considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone 26 climatologies(More)
In our original paper (Vecchi et al., 2013, hereafter V13) we stated " the skill in the initialized forecasts comes in large part from the persistence of the mid-­‐1990s shift by the initialized forecasts, rather than from predicting its evolution ". Smith et al (2013, hereafter S13) challenge that assertion, contending that DePreSys was able to make a(More)
1 Retrospective predictions of multi-year North Atlantic hurricane frequency are explored, 2 by applying a hybrid statistical-dynamical forecast system to initialized and non-3 initialized multi-year forecasts of tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface 4 temperatures (SSTs) from two global climate model forecast systems. By accounting for 5 impacts(More)
Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term "direct" storm proxies. Here we present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data(More)