Gabriele Villarini

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The impact of future anthropogenic forcing on the frequency of tropical storms in the North Atlantic basin has been the subject of intensive investigation. However, whether the number of North Atlantic tropical storms will increase or decrease in a warmer climate is still heavily debated and a consensus has yet to be reached. To shed light on this issue,(More)
Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic(More)
Skillfully predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of potential societal significance and a useful test of our understanding of the factors controlling hurricane activity. In this paper, a statistical– dynamical hurricane forecasting system, based on a statistical hurricane model, with explicit uncertainty estimates, and built from(More)
In recent years, the United States has been severely affected by numerous tropical cyclones (TCs) which have caused massive damages. While media attention mainly focuses on coastal losses from storm surge, these TCs have inflicted significant devastation inland as well. Yet, little is known about the relationship between TC-related inland flooding and(More)
20 Twenty-first century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the 21 robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multi-model ensembles using the 22 CMIP3/A1B (Late 21 st century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (Early and Late 21 st century) scenarios are 23 examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of(More)
Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term "direct" storm proxies. Here we present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data(More)
[1] The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/(More)
Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcolm Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabriele Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim LaRow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Siegfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio(More)
The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial and marine biodiversity and home to 40% of people on Earth. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of(More)