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The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis
Abstract This paper systematically reviews empirical studies looking at the effectiveness of the Delphi technique, and provides a critique of this research. Findings suggest that Delphi groupsExpand
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A gene expression-based method to diagnose clinically distinct subgroups of diffuse large B cell lymphoma
To classify cancer specimens by their gene expression profiles, we created a statistical method based on Bayes' rule that estimates the probability of membership in one of two cancer subgroups. WeExpand
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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment isExpand
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Molecular Diagnosis of Primary Mediastinal B Cell Lymphoma Identifies a Clinically Favorable Subgroup of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma Related to Hodgkin Lymphoma
Using current diagnostic criteria, primary mediastinal B cell lymphoma (PMBL) cannot be distinguished from other types of diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) reliably. We used gene expressionExpand
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Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique
Expert opinion is often necessary in forecasting tasks because of a lack of appropriate or available information for using statistical procedures. But how does one get the best forecast from experts?Expand
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Enhancing Strategy Evaluation in Scenario Planning: a Role for Decision Analysis
Scenario planning can be a useful and attractive tool in strategic management. In a rapidly changing environment it can avoid the pitfalls of more traditional methods. Moreover, it provides a meansExpand
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Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method
In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues toExpand
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Confronting Strategic Inertia in a Top Management Team: Learning from Failure
Recently there has been a growing interest in the use of scenario-planning techniques and related procedures such as cognitive mapping as a basis for facilitating organizational learning andExpand
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Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?
In this paper, we synthesize the extant literature to establish the common objectives of scenario interventions within organizations and contextualize the well-established, but basic, “intuitiveExpand
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Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: issues &
This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, aExpand
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