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Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality.
The authors have proposed a family of algorithms based on a simple psychological mechanism: one-reason decision making, and found that these fast and frugal algorithms violate fundamental tenets of classical rationality: they neither look up nor integrate all information. Expand
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. TraditionalExpand
How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats
By analyzing several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems, the authors found that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of all inferences by Bayesian algorithms. Expand
Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic.
The recognition heuristic, arguably the most frugal of all heuristics, makes inferences from patterns of missing knowledge that leads to the counterintuitive less-is-more effect in which less knowledge is better than more for making accurate inferences. Expand
Heuristic decision making.
Research indicates that individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. Expand
The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.
The priority heuristic is generalized from the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences and predicts the Allais paradox, and how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices is tested. Expand
Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence.
A comprehensive framework for the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory) is proposed, which explains both the overconfidence effect and the hard-easy effect and predicts conditions under which both effects appear, disappear, or invert. Expand
Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitiveExpand
Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences
The study of heuristics shows that less information, computation, and time can in fact improve accuracy, in contrast to the widely held view that less processing reduces accuracy. Expand