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Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality.
Humans and animals make inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge. In contrast, many models of rational inference treat the mind as a Laplacean Demon, equipped with unlimited time,Expand
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How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats
Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? Previous research on base rate neglect suggests that the mind lacks the appropriate cognitive algorithms. However, any claimExpand
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Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic.
One view of heuristics is that they are imperfect versions of optimal statistical procedures considered too complicated for ordinary minds to carry out. In contrast, the authors consider heuristicsExpand
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Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. TraditionalExpand
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Heuristic decision making.
As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficientExpand
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The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.
Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at varianceExpand
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Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence.
Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensiveExpand
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How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”
Most so-called "errors" in probabilistic reasoning are in fact not violations of probability theory. Examples of such "errors" include overconfi dence bias, conjunction fallacy, and base-rateExpand
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Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitiveExpand
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