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Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality.
Humans and animals make inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge. In contrast, many models of rational inference treat the mind as a Laplacean Demon, equipped with unlimited time,… Expand
How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats
Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? Previous research on base rate neglect suggests that the mind lacks the appropriate cognitive algorithms. However, any claim… Expand
Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic.
One view of heuristics is that they are imperfect versions of optimal statistical procedures considered too complicated for ordinary minds to carry out. In contrast, the authors consider heuristics… Expand
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional… Expand
Heuristic decision making.
As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient… Expand
The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.
Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance… Expand
Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence.
Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensive… Expand
How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”
- G. Gigerenzer
Most so-called "errors" in probabilistic reasoning are in fact not violations of probability theory. Examples of such "errors" include overconfi dence bias, conjunction fallacy, and base-rate… Expand