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Trade Effects of the Euro: Evidence from Sectoral Data
This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of EMU on trade, adding two new elements. First, we propose a theoretical model for explaining how the euro could have increased trade by the… Expand
To Aggregate or Not to Aggregate? Euro Area Inflation Forecasting
In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country… Expand
The impact of EMU on trade flows
The Impact of EMU on Trade Flows. — In this paper we quantify the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows within the EU with the help of a gravity trade model. We consider bilateral instead… Expand
Exchange Rate Volatility and Euro Area Imports
This paper estimates an import demand function for the euro area vis--vis its main extra-area trading partners which takes into account the possible impact of both intra- and extra-euro area exchange… Expand
Energy Markets and the Euro Area Macroeconomy
This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the… Expand
Inflation and Productivity Differentials in EMU
The aim of this paper is to find out whether the Balassa-Samuelson effect is important in EMU. We use panel data going from 1971 to 1995 for the current EU members in order to estimate the long run… Expand
Early Estimates of Euro Area Real GDP Growth: A Bottom Up Approach from the Production Side
This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different… Expand
Euro Area Private Consumption: Is There a Role for Housing Wealth Effects?
- Frauke Skudelny
- 26 May 2009
This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling financial wealth effects from housing wealth effects for the euro area. We use two macro-datasets for our… Expand
Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?
The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether forecast combination methods can be used to hedge against bad forecast performance… Expand
Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade - What is the New Normal?
Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth… Expand