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The empirical application of Stochastic Volatility (SV) models has been limited due to the difficulties involved in the evaluation of the likelihood function. However, recently there has been fundamental progress in this area due to the proposal of several new estimation methods that try to overcome this problem, being at the same time, empirically(More)
OBJECTIVES To study the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and tuberculin skin test (TST) reaction in predicting the development of active tuberculosis (TB). DESIGN A follow-up study. SETTING Old age homes. PARTICIPANTS Three thousand six hundred five residents who took part in a screening program for TB and had two-step TST using two units of(More)
OBJECTIVES To assess the prevalence of tuberculous infection and active tuberculosis (TB) in old age homes in Hong Kong and to determine whether there is institutional transmission in these homes. DESIGN Cross-sectional. SETTING Old age homes. PARTICIPANTS Total of 2,243 residents, representing 84.6% of all residents in 15 old age homes; 1,698 were(More)
Following the rapid growth in the international debt of less developed countries in the 1970s and the increasing incidence of debt rescheduling in the early 1980s, country risk has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community. A critical assessment of country risk is essential because it reflects the ability and willingness of a(More)
The variance of a portfolio can be forecasted using a single index model or the covariance matrix of the portfolio. Using univariate and multivariate conditional volatility models, this paper evaluates the performance of the single index and portfolio models in forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds of a portfolio. The LR tests of unconditional(More)
Credit risk is the most important type of risk in terms of monetary value. Another key risk measure is market risk, which is concerned with stocks and bonds, and related financial derivatives, as well as exchange rates and interest rates. This paper is concerned with market risk management and monitoring under the Basel II Accord, and presents Ten(More)
The stochastic volatility model usually incorporates asymmetric effects by introducing the negative correlation between the innovations in returns and volatility. In this paper, we propose a new asymmetric stochastic volatility model, based on the leverage and size effects. The model is a generalization of the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model of Nelson(More)
Interventions to treat cerebral palsy should be initiated as soon as possible in order to restore the nervous system to the correct developmental trajectory. One drawback to this approach is that interventions have to undergo exceptionally rigorous assessment for both safety and efficacy prior to use in infants. Part of this process should involve research(More)
AIMS Mitochondrial disorders are among the most frequently inherited cause of neurological disease and arise due to mutations in mitochondrial or nuclear DNA. Currently, we do not understand the specific involvement of certain brain regions or selective neuronal vulnerability in mitochondrial disease. Recent studies suggest γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA)-ergic(More)