forecast: Forecasting functions for time series and linear models
Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
The timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making is described and objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19 are provided.
Forecasting with temporal hierarchies
Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies
An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting: an empirical proposition and analysis
- K. Nikolopoulos, A. Syntetos, J. Boylan, F. Petropoulos, V. Assimakopoulos
- BusinessJournal of the Operational Research Society
- 1 March 2011
The effects of aggregation are explored by investigating 5000 stock keeping units from the Royal Air Force by investigating the empirical determination of an optimum aggregation level as well as the effects of aggregating demand in time buckets that equal the lead-time length (plus review period).
Simple versus complex selection rules for forecasting many time series
'Horses for Courses' in demand forecasting
Exploring the sources of uncertainty: Why does bagging for time series forecasting work?
Golden Rule of Forecasting : Be Conservative
- N. Harvey, Robin Hogarth, Michael Lawrence, B. Mellers, F. Petropoulos, Steven P. Schnaars
This article proposes a unifying theory, or Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about…