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Trade Spill-Overs of Fiscal Policy in the European Union: A Panel Analysis
We explore the international spillovers from fiscal policy shocks via trade in Europe. A fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, which leads to more foreign exports and, hence, higher foreignExpand
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Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH
Abstract. Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. Using data on three major U.S. dollar exchange rates we show that such forecasts are too high in volatile periods. WeExpand
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THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC SPENDING SHOCKS ON TRADE BALANCES AND BUDGET DEFICITS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
We investigate the consequences of an increase in public spending for trade balances and budget deficits in the European Union, using a panel vector auto-regression approach. Whereas the literatureExpand
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The Euro Effect on Trade is Not as Large as Commonly Thought
Existing studies on the impact of the euro on goods trade report increments between 5% and 40%. These estimates are based on standard panel gravity models for the level of trade. We show that theExpand
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Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model
This article tests whether points in tennis are independent and identically distributed (iid). We model the probability of winning a point on service and show that points are neither independent norExpand
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The Importance of Dynamics in Panel Gravity Models of Trade
Existing gravity models of trade based on panel data are often static, that is, they only allow for contemporaneous effects of regressors on trade. However, there are numerous economic argumentsExpand
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Improving GARCH Volatility Forecasts
Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing twoExpand
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Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in Emu Desirable?
It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for the international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved with such coordination of fiscal policy as aExpand
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Has the Euro Increased Trade?
A major economic reason for the introduction of the euro was its supposedly positive effect on intra-EMU trade. Existing studies examine this suspicion indirectly using non-EMU data and reportExpand
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Why is it So Difficult to Find an Effect of Exchange Rate Risk on Trade
The question whether exchange rate risk a¤ects trade has received considerable attention in the literature. However, the conclusions are still mixed. This paper analyzes why it is so difficult toExpand
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