F. N. Kong

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During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4 km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast covering approximately three-fourths of the continental United States. Each member used the WRF-ARW core, was initialized at 2100 UTC,(More)
During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced convection-allowing forecasts from a single deterministic 2-km model and a 10-member 4-km-resolution ensemble. In this study, the 2-km deterministic output was compared with forecasts from the(More)
Twenty-member real-time convection-allowing storm-scale ensemble forecasts with perturbations to model physics, dynamics, initial conditions (IC), and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) during the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment provide a unique opportunity to study the relative impact of different sources of perturbation on(More)
A 3-dimensional (in space and time) object identification algorithm is applied to high-resolution forecasts of hourly-maximum updraft helicity (UH) – a diagnostic that identifies simulated rotating storms – with the goal of using forecast UH objects to predict observed tornado path lengths. UH objects are contiguous swaths of UH exceeding a specified(More)
Using a nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6-and 3-km spacing, the authors employ the scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) technique, developed originally for global and synoptic-scale prediction, to generate ensemble forecasts of a tornadic thunderstorm complex that occurred in north-central Texas(More)
In Part I, the authors used a full physics, nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6-and 3-km spacing to generate the ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm complex. The principal goal was to quantify the value added by fine grid spacing, as well as the assimilation of Doppler radar data, in(More)