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We address one aspect of the treatment of technical change in the environmental economics literature: how technical change impacts the marginal cost of abatement. We review a selection of papers that employ a variety of representations of technical change, and show that these representations have quite different, and sometimes surprising, effects on the(More)
Energy Institute at Haas working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to review by any editorial board. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit is given to the source. Abstract The(More)
Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technological change in advanced solar photovoltaics. We then use the results of the(More)
iv DEDICATION To Bill W. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Erin Baker for her support and guidance. I also owe a debt of gratitude to my committee members, Professors Hari Balasubramanian and John Stranlund, for their feedback and advice, and to my undergraduate advisor, Professor Donald Fisher for his guidance and support,(More)
We combine an expert elicitation and a bottom-up manufacturing cost model to compare the effects of R&D and demand subsidies. We model their effects on the future costs of a low-carbon energy technology that is not currently commercially available, purely organic photovoltaics (PV). We find that: (1) successful R&D enables PV to achieve a cost target of(More)
Public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. Theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy, especially technology policy. However, theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are(More)
1 Abstract In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability(More)