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Energy Institute at Haas working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to review by any editorial board. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit is given to the source. Abstract The(More)
Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technological change in advanced solar photovoltaics. We then use the results of the(More)
Public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. Theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy, especially technology policy. However, theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are(More)
When considering problems of sequential decision making under uncertainty, two of the most interesting questions are: How does the value of the optimal decision variable change with an increase in risk? How does the value of the optimal decision variable change with a more informative signal? In this paper we show that, if the payoff function is separable(More)
We analyze how the socially optimal technology R&D investment changes with the risk-profile of the R&D program and with uncertainty about climate damages. We show that how technology is represented in the model is crucial to the results; and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to R&D. We consider R&D that reduces the cost(More)
Harmonization of unique dataset on probabilistic evolution of key energy technologies. Expectations about the impact of public R&D investments on future costs. Highlighting the key uncertainties and a lack of consensus on cost evolution. a b s t r a c t In this paper we standardize, compare, and aggregate results from thirteen surveys of technology experts,(More)
O perations management methods have been applied profitably to a wide range of technology portfolio management problems, but have been slow to be adopted by governments and policy makers. We develop a framework that allows us to apply such techniques to a large and important public policy problem: energy technology R&D portfolio management under climate(More)
Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three(More)
We use expert elicitations of energy penalties and literature-derived estimates of basic cost parameters to model the future costs of 7 types of carbon capture technology applied to coal power plants. We conduct extensive sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of various parameters on additional levelized electricity costs ($/MWh) and costs of avoided(More)
In this article we ask, if quantities in an elicitation have been decomposed, is it better to combine experts before or after recomposing the quantities? We find that combining experts earlier, before recomposition of the quantities, leads to smaller errors with less variance. A simulation shows that these differences may be quite small on average; while an(More)