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We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the economy in a dynamic stochastic general(More)
and two referees for helpful comments on an earlier version. Both authors were members of the Technical Advisory Group for the 2005 International Comparison Program, which was chaired by Heston. This paper represents their personal views, and should not be taken to represent the views of the ICP, the World Bank, or any other international institution, none(More)
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings,(More)
In his original semantics for counterfactuals, David Lewis presupposed that the ordering of worlds relevant to the evaluation of a counterfactual admitted no incomparability between worlds. He later came to abandon this assumption. But the approach to incomparability he endorsed makes counterintuitive predictions about a class of examples circumscribed in(More)
This paper develops a compositional, type-driven constraint semantic theory for a fragment of the language of subjective uncertainty. In the particular application explored here, the interpretation function of constraint semantics yields not propositions but constraints on credal states as the semantic values of declarative sentences. Constraints are richer(More)
  • Seth Yalcin, Robert Stalnake, +15 authors Andrew Shea
  • 2009
The possibilities we consider or eliminate in inquiry are epistemic possibilities. This disser-tation is mainly about what it is to say or believe that something is possible in this sense. Chapter 1 ('Epistemic Contradictions') describes a new puzzle about epistemic modals and uses it to explore their logic and semantics. Chapter 2 ('Nonfactualism about(More)
Dedication Dedicated to my grandmothers, Louise Andrews and Mattiel Bickerstaff, for their appreciation of education and love for me. Acknowledgements I am very grateful to my graduate supervisor, Dr. Earl E. Swartlzander, Jr., for his encouragement, support, and patience. His guidance in matters both academic and professional has been invaluable. Many(More)
In a crosscountry data set for developing and transitional economies, private consumption per capita from the national accounts deviates on average from mean household income or expenditure based on national sample surveys. Growth rates also differ systematically, such that the ratio of the survey mean to mean consumption from the national accounts is(More)