Eric Forgoston

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We consider the stochastic patterns of a system of communicating, or coupled, self-propelled particles in the presence of noise and communication time delay. For sufficiently large environmental noise, there exists a transition between a translating state and a rotating state with stationary center of mass. Time delayed communication creates a bifurcation(More)
— Tracking Lagrangian coherent structures in dy-namical systems is important for many applications such as oceanography and weather prediction. In this paper, we present a collaborative robotic control strategy designed to track stable and unstable manifolds. The technique does not require global information about the fluid dynamics, and is based on local(More)
We consider a general model of self-propelling particles interacting through a pairwise attractive force in the presence of noise and communication time delay. Previous work by Erdmann [Phys. Rev. E 71, 051904 (2005)] has shown that a large enough noise intensity will cause a translating swarm of individuals to transition to a rotating swarm with a(More)
We consider the problem of stochastic prediction and control in a time-dependent stochastic environment, such as the ocean, where escape from an almost invariant region occurs due to random fluctuations. We determine high-probability control-actuation sets by computing regions of uncertainty, almost invariant sets, and Lagrangian coherent structures. The(More)
—Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) are separatri-ces that delineate dynamically distinct regions in general dynamical systems and can be viewed as the extensions of stable and unstable manifolds to general time-dependent systems. Identifying LCS in dynamical systems is useful for many applications, including oceanography and weather prediction. In this(More)
We consider a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the associated, reduced set of stochastic evolution equations. The transformation correctly projects both the dynamics and the noise(More)
Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite populations. Extinction occurs when fluctuations owing to random transitions act as an effective force that drives one or more(More)
In this paper, we describe the development of an experimental testbed capable of producing controllable ocean-like flows in a laboratory setting. The objective is to develop a testbed to evaluate multi-robot strategies for tracking manifolds and La-grangian coherent structures (LCS) in the ocean. Recent theoretical results have shown that LCS coincide with(More)
Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying(More)
We consider a general swarm model of self-propelling agents interacting through a pairwise potential in the presence of noise and communication time delay. Previous work has shown that a communication time delay in the swarm induces a pattern bifurcation that depends on the size of the coupling amplitude. We extend these results by completely unfolding the(More)