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We study the last-passage growth model on the planar integer lattice with exponential weights. With boundary conditions that represent the equilibrium exclusion process as seen from a particle right after its jump we prove that the variance of the last-passage time in a characteristic direction is of order t 2/3. With more general boundary conditions that(More)
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Motivation. The new solvency regimes now emerging, insist that capital requirements align with the underlying (insurance) risks. This paper explains how a stochastic model built on basic assumptions is used to monitor insurance risk in order to get a clear insight in the aligned economic capital including prudence margins for loss reserves. Method. The(More)
The classical, continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov epidemic model on an arbitrary network is extended to incorporate infection and curing or recovery times each characterized by a general distribution (rather than an exponential distribution as in Markov processes). This extension, called the generalized SIS (GSIS) model, is(More)
Given the adjacency matrix A of a network, we present a second-order mean-field expansion that improves on the first-order N-intertwined susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. Unexpectedly, we found that, in contrast to first-order, second-order mean-field theory is not always possible: the network size N should be large enough. Under the(More)
In Cator and Lopuhaä [3] an asymptotic expansion for the MCD estimators is established in a very general framework. This expansion requires the existence and non-singularity of the derivative in a first-order Taylor expansion. In this paper, we prove the existence of this derivative for multivariate distributions that have a density and provide an explicit(More)
The interplay between two-dimensional percolation growth models and one-dimensional particle processes has been a fruitful source of interesting mathematical phenomena. In this paper we develop a connection between the construction of Busemann functions in the Hammersley last-passage percolation model with i.i.d. random weights, and the existence,(More)
Since the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic threshold is not precisely defined in spite of its practical importance, the classical SIS epidemic process has been generalized to the ε-SIS model, where a node possesses a self-infection rate ε, in addition to a link infection rate β and a curing rate δ. The exact Markov equations are derived, from(More)
Since mean-field approximations for susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics do not always predict the correct scaling of the epidemic threshold of the SIS metastable regime, we propose two novel approaches: (a) an ε-SIS generalized model and (b) a modified SIS model that prevents the epidemic from dying out (i.e., without the complicating absorbing(More)