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These guidance notes are intended to assist Lead Authors of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the consistent treatment of uncertainties across all three Working Groups. These notes define a common approach and calibrated language that can be used broadly for developing expert judgments and for evaluating and communicating the degree of certainty in(More)
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates(More)
Avoiding dangerous climate change is likely to require policies to mitigate CO 2 emissions that are substantially more ambitious than those currently being considered. For such policies, the issue of endogenous technological change becomes important, both to estimate the overall costs and to identify the intertemporally cost-effective combination of(More)
We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socioeconomic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative(More)
  • Elmar Kriegler, Ottmar Edenhofer, Lena Reuster, Gunnar Luderer, David Klein
  • 2013
The ability to directly remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere allows the decoupling of emissions and emissions control in space and time. We ask the question whether this unique feature of carbon dioxide removal technologies fundamentally alters the dynamics of climate mitigation pathways. The analysis is performed in the coupled energy-economy-climate(More)
  • Gunnar Luderer, Robert C Pietzcker, Christoph Bertram, Elmar Kriegler, Malte, Meinshausen +1 other
  • 2013
15 While the international community aims to limit global warming below 2°C to prevent 16 dangerous climate change, little progress is made towards a global climate agreement to 17 implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated 18 energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of 19 cooperative(More)