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- Core Writing, Michael D Mastrandrea, Christopher B Field, Thomas F Stocker, Ottmar Edenhofer, Kristie L Ebi +7 others
- 2010

These guidance notes are intended to assist Lead Authors of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the consistent treatment of uncertainties across all three Working Groups. These notes define a common approach and calibrated language that can be used broadly for developing expert judgments and for evaluating and communicating the degree of certainty in… (More)

We apply random set theory to an analysis of future climate change. Bounds on cumulative probability are used to quantify uncertainties in natural and socioeconomic factors that influence estimates of global mean temperature. We explore the link of random sets to lower envelopes of probability families bounded by cumulative probability intervals. By… (More)

We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socioeconomic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative… (More)

- Elmar Kriegler, Jim W Hall, Hermann Held, Richard Dawson, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences…
- 2009

Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates… (More)

We present Bayesian updating of an imprecise probability measure, represented by a class of precise multidimensional probability measures. Choice and analysis of our class are motivated by expert interviews that we conducted with modelers in the context of climatic change. From the interviews we deduce that generically, experts hold a much more informed… (More)

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