Elmar Kriegler

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The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the(More)
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop(More)
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates(More)
We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socioeconomic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative(More)
1 Despite two decades of effort to curb emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), emissions grew faster during the 2000s than in the 1990s1, and by 2010 had reached ~50 Gt CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) yr (refs 2,3). The continuing rise in emissions is a growing challenge for meeting the international goal of limiting warming to less than 2 °C relative(More)
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate(More)
The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development(More)
We investigate the sensitivity of emissions corridors for the 21 century to various factors currently under debate in the climate change arena. Emissions corridors represent the range of admissible emissions futures that observe some predefined guardrails on the future development of the human-climate system. They are calculated on the conceptual and(More)
This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the(More)