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The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the(More)
These guidance notes are intended to assist Lead Authors of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the consistent treatment of uncertainties across all three Working Groups. These notes define a common approach and calibrated language that can be used broadly for developing expert judgments and for evaluating and communicating the degree of certainty in(More)
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates(More)
We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socioeconomic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative(More)
15 While the international community aims to limit global warming below 2°C to prevent 16 dangerous climate change, little progress is made towards a global climate agreement to 17 implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated 18 energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of 19 cooperative(More)
The ability to directly remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere allows the decoupling of emissions and emissions control in space and time. We ask the question whether this unique feature of carbon dioxide removal technologies fundamentally alters the dynamics of climate mitigation pathways. The analysis is performed in the coupled energy-economy-climate(More)