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The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the(More)
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates(More)
Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long‐term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long‐term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper(More)
We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socioeconomic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative(More)
The basic rationale is to attribute emission reductions induced by climate policy to individual technologies by tracking the substitution between different technology pathways for the provision of secondary energy. By considering region, time period, and secondary energy type individually, the calculation is performed at the highest possible resolution(More)