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Hacking the Electorate: How Campaigns Perceive Voters
1. Introduction, 2. The perceived voter model 3. The policy roots of elite perceptions 4. Campaign perceptions quantified 5. The perceived partisan 6. The public code of racialized electioneering 7.…
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Are Close Elections Random
Elections with small margins of victory represent an important form of democratic competition and, increasingly, an opportunity for causal inference. When scholars use close elections for examining…
Validation: What Big Data Reveal About Survey Misreporting and the Real Electorate
Social scientists rely on surveys to explain political behavior. From consistent overreporting of voter turnout, it is evident that responses on survey items may be unreliable and lead scholars to…
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Targeted Campaign Appeals and the Value of Ambiguity
Political campaigns increasingly micro-target. Given detailed knowledge of voters’ identities, campaigns try to persuade voters by pandering to these identities. Through multiple survey experiments,…
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Obstacles to Estimating Voter ID Laws’ Effect on Turnout
Widespread concern that voter identification laws suppress turnout among racial and ethnic minorities has made empirical evaluations of these laws crucial. But problems with administrative records…
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Party Activists as Campaign Advertisers: The Ground Campaign as a Principal-Agent Problem
As a key element of their strategy, recent Presidential campaigns have recruited thousands of workers to engage in direct voter contact. We conceive of this strategy as a principal-agent problem.…
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ADGN: An Algorithm for Record Linkage Using Address, Date of Birth, Gender, and Name
TLDR
An algorithm for record linkage that uses multiple indicators derived from combinations of fields commonly found in databases, showing that exact matches using combinations A, D, G, and N produce a rate of matches comparable to 9-Digit Social Security Number.
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Long-term effect of September 11 on the political behavior of victims’ families and neighbors
  • Eitan Hersh
  • Sociology
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 9 December 2013
TLDR
Investigating the long-term effect of September 11, 2001 on the political behaviors of victims’ families and neighbors finds that family members and residential neighbors of victims have become—and have stayed—significantly more active in politics in the last 12 years, and they have become more Republican on account of the terrorist attacks.
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The Measure of American Elections: Voter Registration: The Process and Quality of Lists
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Voting Costs and Voter Turnout in Competitive Elections
In the United States, competitive elections are often concentrated in particular places. These places attract disproportionate attention from news media and election campaigns. Yet many voting…
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