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Most work on generic early warning signals for critical transitions focuses on indicators of the phenomenon of critical slowing down that precedes a range of catastrophic bifurcation points. However, in highly stochastic environments, systems will tend to shift to alternative basins of attraction already far from such bifurcation points. In fact, strong(More)
A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on(More)
Macrophytes play a crucial role in the functioning of lake ecosystems. Until now most macrophyte models neglected the fact that the majority of macrophyte species expand clonally during the growing season. Inclusion of a detailed description of clonal growth in models can facilitate our understanding of space occupation and patch expansion and predict(More)
The prevalence of alternate stable states on coral reefs has been disputed, although there is universal agreement that many reefs have experienced substantial losses of coral cover. Alternate stable states require a strong positive feedback that causes self-reinforcing runaway change when a threshold is passed. Here we use a simple model of the dynamics of(More)
We compared the species richness and abundance of fish, zooplankton and phytoplankton in nine mesotrophic coastal shallow lakes (Northeastern Brazil) with and without the exotic predator cichlid tucunaré or ‘peacock bass’ (Cichla cf. ocellaris). We hypothesized that the introduction of tucunaré would lead to decreased abundance and species diversity of(More)
The task of providing early indicators of catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems is fundamental in order to design management protocols for those systems. Here we address the problem of lake eutrophication (the overenrichment with nutrients leading to algal blooms) using a simple spatial model. We discuss and compare different spatial and temporal early(More)