Eben E. Kenah

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Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval(More)
In an important paper, Newman [Phys. Rev. E66, 016128 (2002)] claimed that a general network-based stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) epidemic model is isomorphic to a bond percolation model, where the bonds are the edges of the contact network and the bond occupation probability is equal to the marginal probability of transmission from an(More)
In this paper, we outline the theory of epidemic percolation networks and their use in the analysis of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic models on undirected contact networks. We then show how the same theory can be used to analyze stochastic SIR models with random and proportionate mixing. The epidemic percolation networks for these(More)
Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study(More)
Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was(More)
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and epidemic data analysis. In this paper, we specify a general stochastic SIR epidemic model and prove that the mean(More)
We argue that the time from the onset of infectiousness to infectious contact, which we call the "contact interval," is a better basis for inference in epidemic data than the generation or serial interval. Since contact intervals can be right censored, survival analysis is the natural approach to estimation. Estimates of the contact interval distribution(More)
New strains of influenza spread around the globe via the movement of infected individuals. The global dynamics of influenza are complicated by different patterns of influenza seasonality in different regions of the world. We have released an open-source stochastic mathematical model of the spread of influenza across 321 major, strategically located cities(More)
Epidemic percolation networks (EPNs) are directed random networks that can be used to analyze stochastic "Susceptible-Infectious-Removed" (SIR) and "Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed" (SEIR) epidemic models, unifying and generalizing previous uses of networks and branching processes to analyze mass-action and network-based S(E)IR models. This paper(More)
Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific(More)