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Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria…
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
The results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission and continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.
Probability based estimation theory for respondent driven sampling
Many populations of interest present special challenges for traditional survey methodology when it is difficult or impossible to obtain a traditional sampling frame. In the case of such “hidden”…
Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C…
Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
It is shown that the SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.7, now designated Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 2020 and has a substantial transmission advantage over non-VOC lineages.
SIR dynamics in random networks with heterogeneous connectivity
- E. Volz
- MathematicsJournal of mathematical biology
- 15 May 2007
The dynamic equations provide an alternative way of determining the epidemic threshold where large-scale epidemics are expected to occur, and below which epidemic behavior is limited to finite-sized outbreaks.
Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
It is found that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing and there is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality
- E. Volz
- 1 January 2012
A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension, which should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics.