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Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
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Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria…
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Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
TLDR
The results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission and continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.
View on Springer
Probability based estimation theory for respondent driven sampling
Many populations of interest present special challenges for traditional survey methodology when it is difficult or impossible to obtain a traditional sampling frame. In the case of such “hidden”…
Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C…
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Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
TLDR
It is shown that the SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.7, now designated Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 2020 and has a substantial transmission advantage over non-VOC lineages.
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SIR dynamics in random networks with heterogeneous connectivity
  • E. Volz
  • Mathematics
    Journal of mathematical biology
  • 15 May 2007
TLDR
The dynamic equations provide an alternative way of determining the epidemic threshold where large-scale epidemics are expected to occur, and below which epidemic behavior is limited to finite-sized outbreaks.
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Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
TLDR
It is found that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing and there is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
View on PubMed
Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality
  • E. Volz
  • Economics
    Genetics
  • 1 January 2012
TLDR
A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension, which should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics.
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Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity
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