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Deterministic nonperiodic flow
Finite systems of deterministic ordinary nonlinear differential equations may be designed to represent forced dissipative hydrodynamic flow. Solutions of these equations can be identified with
Available Potential Energy and the Maintenance of the General Circulation
The available potential energy of the atmosphere may be defined as the difference between the total potential energy and the minimum total potential energy which could result from any adiabatic
Optimal Sites for Supplementary Weather Observations: Simulation with a Small Model
Abstract Anticipating the opportunity to make supplementary observations at locations that can depend upon the current weather situation, the question is posed as to what strategy should be adopted
Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere*
Some early ideas concerning the general circulation of the atmosphere are reviewed. A model of the general circulation, consisting of three ordinary differential equations, is introduced. For
Atmospheric Predictability as Revealed by Naturally Occurring Analogues
Abstract Two states of the atmosphere which are observed to resemble one another are termed analogues. Eitherstate of a pair of analogues may be regarded as equal to the other state plus a small
The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion
It is proposed that certain formally deterministic fluid systems which possess many scales of motion are observationally indistinguishable from indeterministic systems; specifically, that two states
A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model
A 28-variable model of the atmosphere is constructed by expanding the equations of a two-level geostrophic model in truncated double-Fourier series. The model includes the nonlinear interactions
Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model
  • E. Lorenz
  • Environmental Science
  • 1 December 1982
The instability of the atmosphere places an upper bound on the predictability of instantaneous weather patterns. The skill with which current operational forecasting procedures are observed to
Designing Chaotic Models
Design of two new models to produce smoother variations from one longitude to the next and another to produce small-scale activity superposed on smooth large-scale waves indicate that only limited improvement can be attained by improving the analysis but not the operational model, or vice versa.