Douglas C. Creighton

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This paper evaluates the four leading techniques proposed in the literature for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for neural network point forecasts. The delta, Bayesian, bootstrap, and mean-variance estimation (MVE) methods are reviewed and their performance for generating high-quality PIs is compared. PI-based measures are proposed and applied(More)
Prediction intervals (PIs) have been proposed in the literature to provide more information by quantifying the level of uncertainty associated to the point forecasts. Traditional methods for construction of neural network (NN) based PIs suffer from restrictive assumptions about data distribution and massive computational loads. In this paper, we propose a(More)
The accurate prediction of travel times is desirable, but frequently prone to error. This is mainly attributable to both the underlying traffic processes, as well as in the data which are used to infer travel time. A more meaningful and pragmatic approach is to view travel time prediction as probabilistic inference and to construct prediction intervals,(More)
OLE Process Control (OPC) is an industry standard that facilitates the communication between PCs and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC). This communication allows for the testing of control systems with an emulation model. When models require faster and higher volume communications, limitations within OPC prevent this. In this paper an interface is(More)
—Pedestrian steering activity is a perception-based decision making process that involves interaction with the surrounding environment and insight into environmental stimuli. There are many stimuli within the environment that influence pedestrian wayfinding behaviour during walking activities. However, compelling factors such as individual physical and(More)
The performance of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) significantly drops when uncertainty exists in the data or system operation. Prediction Intervals (PIs) can quantify the uncertainty associated with ANFIS point predictions. This paper first presents a methodology to adapt the delta technique for construction of PIs for outcomes of the ANFIS(More)