Doug M. Smith

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A new field of study, “decadal prediction”, is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 years. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this timescale as(More)
Annually emerging cicadas are a numerically and ecologically dominant species in Southwestern riparian forests. Humans have altered disturbance regimes that structure these forests such that floods are less common and wildfires occur more frequently than was historically the case. Impacts of these changes on primary consumers such as riparian cicadas are(More)
[1] Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e., forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, which the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface(More)
Riparian ecosystems are vital components of aridlands within the southwestern United States. Historically, surface flows influenced population dynamics of native riparian trees. Many southwestern streams has been altered by regulation, however, and will be further affected by greenhouse warming. Our analysis of stream gage data revealed that decreases in(More)
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